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April Recap: Seven Lucky Charts You Can't Afford to Miss
Key information from last month's updates, quickly summarized
Mark Helfman
May 01, 2024
Every month, I post market updates, weekly rundowns, and a monthly post in addition to special reports.
That's a lot of content! “Value,” as they say.
To help you digest all that information, check out some key charts below. Read and watch my market updates for analysis, discussion, and other information (and charts!) that can boost your returns.
Chart 1: Diamond hands? More like cubic zirconia
Long-time HODLers continue to sell at an elevated pace. The spent volume age bands for +1-year HODLers keep growing even when you remove +7-year wallets.
Greyscale and the US government account for some of that, but a lot of it comes from other sources.
Chart 2: Lots of gains to protect
Relative unrealized profit remains high and has started to trend down. This suggests market participants continue to take profits and still have a lot of paper gains they’ll feel the urge to protect if Bitcoin’s price continues to slide.
Chart 3: HOPL those HODLers are BODLer than they used to be
New buyers are soaking up the market cap while old HODLers disappear.
Some of this trend gets skewed from Greyscale selling old Bitcoins to new buyers, but not enough to matter for our purposes. Bottom line: it’s significant.
We don’t know yet whether these new buyers will stick around. Let’s hope they do, at least long enough for ETF buyers and dollar cost averagers to get more money into the market to make up for the diamond hands who sold.
When new buyers enter during speculative manias, they often enter with a large purchase, then add smaller amounts of money (or none) after that initial purchase. Think of it as a FOMO buy with a series of follow-up purchases because “it’ll go higher” and “I’m a long-term investor” or “I bought my allocation to Bitcoin, now I need some ETH/SOL/[fill in the blank].”
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