In partnership with

Before I get to that, a few New Year’s resolutions:

New Year’s resolutions

In the spirit of the new year, some plans:

Resolution 1: Change the “sell” signals of my plan

Wall Street ETFs screw up the accuracy of “realized price,” one component of a key metric, the MVRV Z-SCORE.

Before these ETFs, almost all on-chain activity reflected the genuine intent of people in the market, not the whims of an ETF’s bookkeeper. Now, so many Bitcoins go in and out of the ETFs without regard to the intent of buyers and sellers.

As a result, “realized” metrics impute a lot of meaningless activity. The absolute value of the MVRV Z-SCORE will continually get less useful as we move forward.

While this metric can help understand the direction of the market, I need something different for the sell signal. I have some ideas. I’ll update you soon.

Mark, why not use your Danger Zone chart? 

That chart doesn’t contain any triggers or signals. Also, I don’t know how to share a live version.

To recreate the formula on your own, you need a premium Glassnode subscription, which costs more than three times as much as this newsletter (for the lowest tier).

That said, I may do something that incorporates that chart. Stay tuned!

Resolution 2: Get off Twitter and ramp up Twitter

I have two Twitter accounts (long story). I’m taking my personal account @mkhelfman private and generally cutting back on Twitter.

My Twitter manager will maintain my newsletter account @markhelfman on my behalf.

Twitter used to be a fun way to engage colleagues and great thinkers, but many of my favorite people have either moved on or don’t post much.

It also used to be a good way to get a sense of sentiment. With changes in the algorithm over the past year or two, the platform now caters to the biggest, most-engaged accounts and those who share their views and content that they like, not Twitter as a whole. It’s hard to find balanced, informative new content or get a true reflection of . . . anything.

On to the charts.

Chart 1: No supply squeeze

The number of Bitcoins on exchanges reached its lowest since 2019, but the value has reached an all-time high of $270 billion.

Some claim that exchanges are running out of Bitcoins, but $270 billion is more than enough to settle purchases and withdrawals.

You don't have to worry about a supply squeeze.

Chart 2: Accumulators or distributors?

Key accumulation cohorts—those who hold 0.1 to 100 Bitcoins in a wallet—continue to plummet. They’re falling off a cliff. Meanwhile, those who hold less than .1 BTC are struggling to go higher.

The chart makes the problem look worse than it actually is, but it’s hard for the market to sustain higher prices when you don’t see signs of stacking, hoarding, and growth among the cohorts with the most Bitcoins.

Subscribe to Crypto Is Easy Premium to read the rest.