Did you enjoy 2024’s ETF excitement? Headlines screaming "To the Moon!" and promises of astronomical gains with crypto? 

That's nothing compared to what you'll get after Bitcoin’s halving. 

If you think that means you can throw your life savings into the market and retire early, think again.

Let's take a moment to step back and analyze the situation with a clear head. The path to the peak may not unfold like you think.

Bitcoin's price behavior post-halving brings twists, turns, volatility, and plenty of opportunities for those who prepare.

Buckle up as we explore the intricacies of miner distress, the ripple effects of halving-induced changes in supply dynamics, and the evolving narrative surrounding altcoins.

This report will give you the knowledge and foresight needed to navigate the highs and lows of the crypto market with confidence. 

Keep level expectations

Conventional wisdom says Bitcoin’s price goes “Up Only” after the halving.

That has never happened.

In 2012, bitcoin’s price languished for more than a month. In 2016, its price dropped and it took four months to get back to even. In 2020, its price stayed flat for two months.

See for yourself:

If history is our guide, we get a similar outcome this time. To summarize a far more nuanced, complicated story:

In 2024, we caught a massive bid. This round of speculative enthusiasm pushed Bitcoin’s price to a new all-time high. The market zoomed in a way we’ve never seen heading into a halving event.

Halving or not, these conditions are not sustainable. 

Crypto sometimes gets ahead of itself. Once it cools off, the real magic occurs.

The halving cuts new Bitcoin issuance in half—equivalent to roughly $11 billion per year at today’s prices. That’s almost $1 billion less selling pressure coming to the market each month (more as the price goes up).

It’s as much as the Wall Street Bitcoin ETFs bought this year, with a huge difference: those ETFs can dump supply on the market at any time. The halving makes sure the same amount of Bitcoins never hit the market at all. 

More than that, look at who loses: miners, the only forced sellers in crypto. That means fewer Bitcoins will go to people who always sell them. 

While $1 billion each month is not a lot for an asset as big as Bitcoin, it’s enough to make a difference. 

Just not immediately and not all at once.

Market dynamics always win in the short run. Supply reductions last forever.

Miner distress—don’t panic!

Because expectations of “the moon” don’t match the reality of the market, you may start to hear about miners shutting down or going out of business.

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