Sunday Rundown - April 18, 2021

Bitcoin’s price is dropping. Are you worried?

No reason to fear yet. This is normal volatility.

End of altseason?

Altseason doesn’t end until bitcoin says it does. Altcoins will go whatever direction bitcoin goes (though a few may do the opposite for a little while before bitcoin’s gravity takes hold).

We’ve seen the market get weaker and weaker for months, yet the prices have kept going up. So, there’s no reason yet to believe that can’t continue.

In fact, if you believe the parabola will continue forever and we’ll have a supercycle, now’s a great time to buy. Still too risky for me. There’s never a bad time to buy bitcoin, but some times are better than others.

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See below for some news, notes, and videos. I’m a little behind on emails—busy weekend—and if you’re waiting for me to respond, I’ll get back to you soon.

In my April 15, 2021 update, I mentioned the Miners Position Index (MPI) chart but didn’t show it, simply because I thought the video update was already a little too long and dense.

Here’s the chart:

Look at the box that the arrow points to. That’s the MPI since March. It’s pretty low. When MPI goes that low, it means miners are hoarding bitcoin.

If miners shift from hoarding to selling, their actions will put a lot of downward pressure on price.

With FOMO, it doesn’t matter, the inflows of fresh capital will make up for any inventory miners unload. But if miners get spooked and start selling en masse, what makes you think others won’t, too? Some of you have taken profits in the past few weeks. Are you planning to buy back in now?

Be careful. Once the price goes into the buying zone of my plan, you can buy despite the risks.

Until then, there’s nothing wrong with being a little cautious. We don’t see any changes in the overall miner activity at this moment and I’ll keep an eye on this and other metrics.

Speaking of metrics, check out Ark Invest’s series on bitcoin’s fundamentals for a nice overview of some key data and metrics. I missed Part 1 in January but caught Part 2 last week (and then read Part 1).

Check out Glassnode Academy for more learnings.

Circle’s chief strategy officer, Dante Disparte, talked to Coindesk about Turkey’s ban and government regulation, Facebook’s crypto, and financial inclusion. Dante served as vice-chair for the Libra Foundation and while the interview is sponsored, it’s informative.

Early last week I posted a video “Why I Love NFTs and Don’t Take Profits.” Way-too-short-summary:

• NFTs are a technology concept. Every blockchain can do NFTs.

• NFTs will play a central role in the creator economy and Web 3.0, two areas of disruption that IMO will lead the next leg of this bull market.

• I don’t take profits because it’s expensive and risky.

Watch the video for my reasons.

Investors Should ‘Seriously Consider’ Selling Some Crypto, says Ripple CTO as Bitcoin Tops $64,500

• Bottom-line: one of Ripple’s executives thinks you should sell some crypto.

• My take: I’ll never tell you what to do with your crypto, but I only sell when the market forces me to. With fresh cash and cheap credit, along with new borrowing options for the crypto I already have, I see no reason to sell until a market cycle peak. Fundamentally, crypto is a generational wealth-building opportunity, not a chance to collect more of your government’s money.

• Why we care: selling too early is worse than buying too late.

Relax and enjoy the ride!