Weekly Rundown - April 30, 2023

Hacks, pranks, and all-time highs

¡Hola!

No narration today, I’m feeling quite ill. The weather is over me. Did you catch my most recent update? If not, do it now!

Strange times, these.

Trading charts show not a lot of people buying and selling on exchanges, though that doesn’t capture private deals. Industry publications report not a lot of money going into and out of investment funds, though these don’t directly affect the spot price. Search volume is relatively low overall, though some in countries it remains high.

Over the past many months in updates for premium subscribers, I’ve pointed out a few large transactions here and there. A few hundred million, $1 billion, maybe $2 billion.

That sounds like a lot but not for a $500 billion dollar asset. More importantly, these transactions only stand out because the overall volume is so low. Under normal circumstances, these transactions would blend in with general business.

Sometimes, you don’t need a lot of volume to push prices higher. The market tricks you into thinking prices must go down because “nobody’s buying.” It’s always more complicated than that.

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Bottom line: As South Korea’s legislature works on a regulatory framework for crypto, its central bank worries these actions will send a message that crypto and crypto businesses are as legitimate as legacy financial assets and businesses.

My take: this is the conundrum. You can’t say crypto’s a scam and worthless, and then treat it like a legitimate technology. In the end, the latter standard will win (because it’s true).

Why we care: let’s not get so caught up in US regulatory incompetence that we neglect to see the bigger picture. Crypto forces governments to ask challenging questions about the nature of money, the powers of the state, and the means by which assets are valued. These questions take time to resolve (something the US is not trying to do).

Speaking of government questions, let’s not assume one regulator is better than another. Crypto wants to replace SEC Chairman Gensler, but we don’t know who we’ll get instead.

Blockworks has a great take on this. Tap this button to read the article.

Scandalous Comments From US Central Bank Chairman Exposes Deep State Conspiracy to Destroy the US Economy

April Fools!

Supposedly, Russian pranksters tricked Fed Chairman Jay Powell into saying the same things he’s said publically for a very, very long time. It made the rounds of the internet, I guess some people got riled up about it.

Listen to what he tells some guys pretending to be Ukraine’s president.

This is one of the most unremarkable conversations I’ve ever seen: some platitudes and Chairman Powell’s ELI5 summary of what he’s said in public for a very long time. Though it’s interesting to hear his respectful thoughts about Russia’s central bank chief and his soft criticism of Davos (the World Economic Forum meeting).

Why am I sharing this in a crypto newsletter?

Because it’s a nice snapshot of what the Fed chairman is thinking — in less time than it takes to actually follow what’s going on.

(BTW I give you a 2-sentence summary in most of my monthly issues.)

Also, I’m always amused to see how trivial, non-consequential comments get hyped up as these big issues or some sort of brouhaha. And that’s assuming this is a genuine conversation, not a fake or super-edited spoof.

Isn’t it ironic that it took a bunch of pranksters to get people to pay attention to the Fed‘s actual words instead of whatever the Internet algorithms fed into their feed or bumped up to the top of their search results?

Did you see the news? Bitcoin’s price hit a new all-time high in Argentina. The bull market is confirmed!

Read this Web3 Daily post for more information.

For those wondering why crypto seems so screwed up sometimes, a thought from @shan3v that reflects much of what I see.

Bottom line: once hacked, DeFi protocols almost never get their users back.

My take: makes sense. Maybe the best projects are protocols that got hacked and later recovered? For example, ETH/ETC, RUNE, and other protocols that bucked the trend, which says something about their resiliency, durability, and the strength of their communities.

Why we care: all else being equal, it’s probably better to put your money into a DeFi protocol that hasn’t been hacked yet OR one that’s already recovered from a hack, rather than take your chances on a hacked DeFi protocol rising from the ashes.

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Relax and enjoy the ride!

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