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- Weekly Rundown - February 11, 2024
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When you can look at the broad price movements, on-chain data, “macro,” and trading charts, bitcoin’s price has followed a normal path for a long time.
Even this week’s 13% pump fits a standard bitcoin pattern: hit a high price ($48,900), drop swiftly lower ($38,500), then make a second go at it ($48,500).
If you’re like me, you're feeling uneasy about this.
As I asked in January’s monthly issue, with so many people HODLing or adding now with an expectation of selling in 2025, does that change the dynamics and expectations for this year?
Crypto is supposed to give you something different or new with each upswing or downswing—and not the kind of one-day hiccup or short-lived liquidation event that throws us off for a heartbeat.
Established, long-observed behaviors are supposed to change on a whim. The template isn't supposed to fit. We’re supposed to get deviations from the norm. Curveballs. Plot twists.
You may have started to doubt the four-cycle and data models. You may have bought into the idea of a “left-translated” cycle, a faster-than-normal cycle, or some other version of whatever cycle model you subscribe to.
You may have started asking whether it’s the start of the bull market.
It’s not the start of the bull market. As far as the bull market is concerned, we are 15 months into it. That’s how long the market has gone up. See for yourself.
We’re 20 months removed from the technical and on-chain bottom of June 2022.
For my thoughts about the cycles, read September’s monthly issue, Predictions, Models, and Narratives.
Make sure you got my update from February 7, 2024.
In that update, I checked in on some key metrics and trends, talked about the ETFs and Fed pivot, and showed you why we don’t need to talk about altseason until we see one specific sign.
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Last week, I shared a tweet from Travis Kling about his expectations for the next cycle. If you’ve followed my posts on Medium and elsewhere, you know we share a similar viewpoint. My bias shows through!
Watch his interview with Anthony Pompliano. They discuss some deep perspectives and philosophical reflections on today’s crypto market and society, financial nihilism, token structures, and emerging narratives.
It’s an hour long, but you can speed up the video or watch it in small chunks. It’s worth your time. Dare I say, a must-watch for anybody interested in the long-term, massive growth potential of crypto.
This conversation with @Travis_Kling has created a lot of debate.
It is one of the most honest conversations from industry insiders you will hear on bitcoin, crypto, real use cases, vaporware, ponzinomics, macro, and where we go from here.
Watch the full episode now on X.
— Pomp 🌪 (@APompliano)
Feb 10, 2024
TL;DW?
The market’s focused on gambling, not on cryptocurrency's substantive growth or development.
Which we already know. Adoption starts when speculation ends.
You only get revolutionary ideas in bear markets, when people involved with these technologies can work without the distractions of community members who just want to make a quick buck at their expense. Without the crutch of speculative enthusiasm pumping their treasuries with cheap money, they have to work harder and smarter.
We’re probably past that. It’s ok! The groundwork’s laid. I expect to see three big narratives emerge: real-world assets (RWAs), ETH-killers (alternative smart contract platforms), and regulated crypto (aka “Wall Street Crypto”).
It'll be years before we know what fundamental value any of these projects have or which technology will “win.” Fortunately, we will have ample opportunities to stake our claims to the tokens that will power the financial networks of the future.
Future, not today.
Bottom line: Fidelity Canada added bitcoin to its “All-in-One” funds, with up to 3% allocations available for clients.
My take: isn’t that the whole point of creating the ETF? So you can sell it to your customers? Fidelity brought $675 million inflows into its fund last week, probably as much this week, too. Crazy how they put bitcoin in their core portfolio after they found a way to make money from doing so, not when Greyscale or another business made money off of it.
Before you rejoice about Canadians putting 1-3% of their allocation into bitcoin, remember it’s a target. The fund manager will sell bitcoin if the rest of the portfolio drops too much or bitcoin’s price goes up too much.
Why you should care: this is your competition.
Is 2024 going to be a good year for the US economy?
Maybe your answer is “of course that’s an election year”.
Well maybe not then:
- 16% of the election years show a Real GDP contraction.
- 7% of the non election years show a Real GDP contraction.So election years aren’t… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— ecoinometrics (@ecoinometrics)
Feb 9, 2024
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Relax and enjoy the ride!
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