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- Weekly Rundown - February 25, 2024
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I’m getting more questions about the ETH/BTC trade from my February 14, 2024 update. Quick QA:
Q: Can I still enter this trade?
A: Yes, but I’d caution against it. ETH’s up 13% vs. BTC since my alert. Meanwhile, the exit targets have gone down. You’re getting less potential upside with more potential downside.
Q: Should I take profit before hitting the exit targets?
A: You can if you’d like. Bitcoin’s price hasn’t changed since the trade, but you’re already up 13% on your position. That’s 13% extra bitcoin in 10 days—for free! Who could blame you for taking it?
Q: Can I cash out for my government’s money instead of BTC?
A: Sure, just keep in mind, this trade uses ETH to get more BTC not more of your government’s money. ETH’s price just happened to go up since you entered.
Q: When’s the next trade recommendation?
A: I don’t know. This isn’t a trading newsletter! Think of the alerts as bonus content. When I see easy, low-risk, high-reward trade opportunities, I’ll tell you.
Did you catch last week’s market update?
Get it now.
In that update, I looked at the potential paths for bitcoin and talked about altseason and the ETH/BTC trade that people seem so excited about.
It's funny how I pointed out an even better BTC trade one year ago and nobody seemed to care at that time. I guess the market went up long enough for people to think it’ll keep going up.
Now, we’re seeing a sprinkling of awareness among people who normally wouldn’t care about crypto. Fund managers put some money into ETFs. I’m told the bears don’t matter anymore.
What does this mean for the market?
For my take, read or listen to the February monthly issue. Larry’s laughing about it. Should we laugh, too?
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Scroll down for poll results and some content you may enjoy.
Tap the comment icon to leave a comment. The icon is probably on the left side of your screen, though it might appear on the bottom depending on your browser or device. It looks like this:
Poll results
In last week’s poll, I asked “Which option is more likely?” for bitcoin’s price, option A or B in the chart below.
The results?
50% said A, 50% said B. Split decision.
What do I think?
Option A fits standard bull market behavior, matches the bitcoin’s path in 2019, doesn’t stray too far from similar moves in 2016 and 2020, and looks like what we saw around each previous halving.
Option B fits what we see leading into the cycle-ending peaks (however you define “cycle”).
We’ll need to see how the market unfolds over the next few months.
Don’t worry! You’ll win either way. Option A will bring huge opportunities soon. Option B will bring those huge opportunities later.
Bottom line: Coinbase reported an amazing 2023 but analysts still have low targets for its stock price.
My take: no surprise that one of the best-run businesses in crypto did well in a “bear market.” Slashing the workforce 25% while diversifying revenue streams and banking its $5 billion cash with the US government for an extra $250+ million each year? Not bad for a business that supposedly caters to criminals and speculators.
Why you should care: legacy finance still doesn’t understand crypto. As long as that’s the case, we can still beat them.
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— ardizor 🧙♂️ (@ardizor)
8:05 PM • Feb 17, 2024
Bottom line: Arthur Hayes explains how insiders craft and spread narratives to change your perception of investment opportunities.
My take: nice to see somebody put this into words. Notice how he also shills his projects at the end. Anything to generate the exit liquidity he needs to cash out. You can expect his projects will pump as more new people enter, see the “social proof” of a big-name endorsement, and feel the echo chamber of “the narrative.” The question is whether they’ll pump more than the ones you hold, which is no sure thing, and how they’ll fare after the speculative enthusiasm disappears, which nobody knows. Sometimes, the hype around a project really does match the potential—but that doesn’t mean you can’t do better with something else.
Why you should care: you want to know when you’re being manipulated.
Relax and enjoy the ride!
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