Weekly Rundown - January 7, 2024

Airdrop and more

Listen to this post:

Happy New Year!

US regulators have not approved a spot bitcoin ETF yet.

No matter! Act 3 of the crypto story continues.

Make sure you got my December monthly issue. It’s a fun look at people's misconceptions about where we are in the “market cycle” (however you define it) and what you need to think about now. Also, a comparison of Tether (USDT) and the US military. 

Did you catch my most recent update? In that update, I showed you some interesting behaviors from Aunt Sally and the pickleball crew, further shifts in the HODLer bands, and a fresh look at the altcoin market. I also linked back to all of my market updates from December. If you missed that update, get it now.

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One observation I left out of that update for the sake of time and brevity: a bearish Wyckoff distribution pattern on the short-term trading charts.

Wyckoff distribution schematic diagram:

Bitcoin price chart (1-hour):

When you compare the trading chart to the schematic diagram, ignore a slight deviation from any particular squiggle or line on the price chart. The time and price of the swings are close enough for our purposes. It’s just an illustration to visualize a concept (and a close fit at that).

If this pattern plays out, bitcoin’s price will fall somewhere in the mid-$30,000 region, give or take a few thousand dollars. We will know in the next week or two.

(Yes, I realize these are just squiggles on a chart, but they reflect a well-established pattern of behavior seen in many markets for many years under many circumstances. Dismiss them at your peril! But also read my tweet for perspective.)

I’ll send another market update soon to follow up on this and other topics that nobody else seems to talk about. Scroll down for an airdrop alert and some content you may enjoy.

I’m looking to finalize my next list of sponsors!

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Airdrop Alert!

I can’t keep track of all airdrops for all chains, but I found one that most of you can probably claim.

It’s for Dymension’s Genesis Rolldrop. For the link to check your eligibility and other info about the airdrop, read this Medium post:

If you’re in the US, set your VPN to another country before you check your status. This project geoblocks US users but can’t stop you from claiming your tokens.

Bottom line: Turkey appointed a pro-crypto academic to an advisory position at its central bank.

My take: it’s nice to see a supporter in a position of influence. Turkey’s one of several countries where bitcoin’s price already breached all-time highs in its currency. Time will tell whether that matters for its monetary policy or whether she’ll advocate for the things we care about. She may be there simply to provide operational or technical input.

Why you should care: one more sign that other countries are taking crypto more seriously than yours.

Everybody loves predictions! I’ve been known to throw some out a few every now and then. All in good fun.

The problem with predictions is when you’re right, it’s a coincidence and when you’re wrong, people make fun of you.

I have no predictions for 2024, except the one I gave to Luckbox. I hope they publish it soon!

Meanwhile, Coin Bureau has some predictions you may enjoy. Watch this video!

Bottom line: six people share their investment strategies.

My take: it’s always nice to see what other people are doing. You might get some perspective or inspiration from this article. It’s very short!

Do you want to know my approach? Read my portfolio strategy.

Why you should care: there’s no one way to “do” crypto.

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Relax and enjoy the ride!

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