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- Weekly Rundown - July 23, 2023
Sources say the US central bank will raise interest rates again this week.
Speaking of central banks, did you catch my monthly issue for July? Get it now!
Crazy how time flies. Just six months ago, Bitcoin’s price was $16,500. Toda0y, it’s $30,000, up 80% on the year.
Not good enough, they say. YouTubers are asking what’s holding the market back. Analysts wonder why its price isn’t higher with all of the good news from the US. Your normal friends think it’s dead.
Bull markets climb a wall of worry. Bitcoin’s price could drop 45% and still remain in a technical bull market.
Every other investment goes up 80% in 6 months:
OMG THATS AMAZING HOME RUN WAGMI HOW CAN I GET IN IS IT TOO LATE?
Bitcoin goes up 80% in 6 months:
WHAT’S WRONG WITH IT WHAT’S HOLDING IT BACK MANIPULATION IS KEEPING IT DOWN IT’S GOING TO CRASH WHY WON’T IT GO UP???
— Mark Helfman (@MarkHelfman)
9:26 PM • Jul 23, 2023
My emails seem split: half ask about the downside, half about the upside. Generally, I sense enthusiasm and hope, not worry or bearishness.
For those who want predictions, I’ll post some of those in due time. For now, make sure you get my market updates, which focus on our present conditions. I sent one last week.
Scroll down for some content and a poll.
In the chart below, which path is most likely?Pick one option: |
Bottom line: Chainalysis posted a “how to” guide for anybody who wants to dispel myths and misrepresentations about cryptocurrency.
My take: facts rarely change a person’s mind but sometimes they can give people reasons to consider a different view when they need to justify a decision. We’re probably a year away from your friends and family talking to you about crypto. With this guide (and this newsletter 😉) you’ll have plenty of information once they do.
Why we care: crypto’s a dirty business that gets a lot of hate, but only some of it’s warranted. Best to know what criticism is valid and what’s not.
Bottom line: if the US judicial system adopts the XRP legal standard that cryptocurrency tokens are only securities if sold as securities (not simply for being assets then people make money from selling), then businesses may see tokens as a cheaper, better way to raise capital than selling stock.
My take: investment banks aren’t the only business that will die if cryptocurrency reaches its potential. Wall Street will fade into obsolescence. The industry sells access to financial opportunities. With cryptocurrency, those opportunities are free and accessible to everybody without restraint—including businesses that aspire to go public. If the next Starbucks can create and sell a token that pays dividends, grants voting rights, and guarantees a portion of proceeds from bankruptcy liquidations or acquisitions without US regulatory intervention, why bother with the expense or hassle of issuing shares?
Why we care: legal and regulatory decisions can fundamentally change the adoption and implementation of cryptocurrency.
Last week, I posted a video explaining the reason I mention a drop to $14,000 in my market updates. Watch it now:
TL;DW: too many people embrace unrealistic possibilities and dismiss realistic possibilities. About two minutes into the video, I give a few examples.
$14,000 is one of those examples—you think it can’t happen, but it’s a very natural technical level and makes sense under certain circumstances. Let’s not get so wrapped up in wild projections.
(The whole video is four minutes long.)
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Relax and enjoy the ride!
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