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- Weekly Rundown - November 5, 2023
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How do you feel when you look at this chart:
That’s what bitcoin’s price will do if the market continues to follow the 2016 path, as it has for months. A strong November-December and a very rough first half of 2024.
Don’t laugh.
The beginning of the year resembled the end of 2015. Since March, we’ve matched early 2016’s on-chain and technical movements, psychological metrics, and movements of bitcoins.
Those conditions led to a big pop. Could the past two weeks’ rumblings give us the same result?
That would be crazy.
Fitting, though, if the mildest bear market in crypto history ends with a face-melting zoom.
For more on that, plus a look at shifts in key trends, as well as commentary on altcoins, get my Market Update from November 2, 2023.
Also check your inbox for news about Aragon (ANT).
If you missed that market update or any of the premium content, make sure you’ve upgraded to the premium plan so you don’t miss anything else. Upgrade now and you’ll also get:
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When will Bitcoin's price hit a new all-time high ($70,000 USD)Select one option below |
Bottom line: BlockFi can repay people who lost their crypto when the platform imploded last year. It’s going after 3AC, FTX, and other entities to get more money back. Expect distributions in 2024.
My take: one more step to recovery. If you believe the rumors, FTX will recover most of people’s money, too. A consolation, for sure, but it’s coming at the right time. Some may say “everybody will sell their crypto once they get it,” but in truth, their decisions will depend on market circumstances. Let’s talk about that when we get closer to the distribution date (which is still unclear).
Why we care: sometimes things get bad and then get better. Don’t think Wall Street can’t screw this up just as much as BlockFi did!
Listen to the most recent episode of The Charlie Shrem Show for some perspective on bitcoin’s history and the idea of bitcoin as its own special cryptocurrency, distinct from the others. You may be surprised about what you learn.
Mark, five of your fourteen altcoin reports already doubled since you shared them and some are up more than 400% off their lows—how can that be? Money is supposed to go to bitcoin, then ETH, then large cap altcoins, then small cap altcoins. Like this:
There is no evidence that capital rotates that way. While your personal journey may follow that path, money flows wherever the market wants it to go.
Find some evidence to validate that concept, then come back to me. I haven’t found any yet.
For me, low enough is good enough. No altcoin is worth its price today, not even Ethereum—but the successful ones will be worth so much in the future, that you won't worry whether it’s up 400% this year or down 95% from its peak.
As for my performance, I don’t know what to tell you. Vagaries of the market. Check tomorrow and all of my altcoins could all drop 50% or more. One of my altcoins just died—after doing 3x since the last time I bought it (and almost 5x since I published its altcoin report).
This market is crazy.
Don’t get wrapped up in capital flow models. Just keep in mind the altcoin-specific circumstances and considerations I’ve pointed out in my updates for premium subscribers!
If you were a fan of my most recent monthly issue, Cryptocurrency: It's a New Game, make sure you read Jayden Levitt’s story in Data-Driven Investor, one of my favorite publications.
Along the lines of the rigged game I talked about, Jayden covers Patrick Bet-David’s concern about an acceleration in asset prices that will leave common people behind. Think of it as a cost-of-living crisis within a booming economy.
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Relax and enjoy the ride!
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