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- Weekly Rundown - October 13, 2024
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Last week, commentators said the crypto market fell on fears that Iran and Israel will escalate their attacks.
Has this replaced Taiwan as the geopolitical risk that will sink crypto?
Don’t sleep on other, smaller conflicts that could erupt into larger wars in the Horn of Africa, Caribbean, South Asia, the Caucasus, and other sensitive places. You may have never heard of Somaliland, Essequibo, Myanmar, or Armenia, but local conflicts in those areas may grow into more widespread crises.
Make sure you saw my alert from October 9, 2024.
You can ignore the other alert I sent before it. Always use the most recent alert as your reference. The market changes all the time.
Did you get my market update from October 9, 2024? In it, I shared some critical developments regarding miners and stablecoins, along with another “Q4” comparison that states facts that seem at odds with what others have told you.
If you missed that update, you’re not too late. Nothing substantively has changed since then.
I'll have the monthly post at either the end of this week or the beginning of next. Look for more goodies in the coming months, including a review of the top 50 altcoins.
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Bottom line: A big bank surveyed its rich clients. Among those aged 21-43, crypto was rated the #2 best investment (real estate was #1), with today’s level of interest only slightly lower than in 2022, when the market collapsed. Oddly, among this age group, aggressive investors held less crypto than conservative investors as a percentage of their portfolios.
My take: Conservative investors should hold more crypto than aggressive investors. It’s less risky to have a large allocation to crypto, as long as you’re diversified enough to handle long drawdowns and sideways action that can last months or years.
The survey split out the 44-and-over crowd, but I don’t think about them. At best, they have their 1-3% allocation, which should suffice. We know the financial networks of the future will not be built with the money of the past. It’s nice to know that young people will put more money into crypto as they advance their careers or inherit their parents’ and grandparents’ wealth.
Why you should care: If you're young, you have good company. If you're old, you know you have people who want more crypto and expect to have more money in the future than today.
Last week, top US crypto regulator Gary Gensler talked to NYU law students about frauds and crypto’s prospects for the future. Coindesk covered the event. Unfortunately, I don't have the live recording. Read the summary.
For my thoughts on Gensler’s approach, read an old post, With Cryptocurrency, Worry About Humans Not Laws.
US laws are clear. They also make no sense for crypto. Cryptocurrency is, by definition, not compliant with US securities regulations.
Also, Gensler’s chosen regulatory approach is harmful and counterproductive. The SEC had a choice:
A—govern with a light touch, focus on frauds, and petition Congress for laws that make sense for crypto.
B—stick to nonsensical rules, target legitimate projects (and some frauds), and ask for no legislative relief.
They chose option B.
Relax and enjoy the ride!
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