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- Weekly Rundown - October 15, 2023
You may have heard rumors that the US authorities will shut down exchanges that facilitated crypto payments to Hamas. Specifically, Binance.
Considering the US already called Binance a criminal organization and filed severe charges against its US entity, I’m not sure this puts Binance in any more trouble than it’s already in.
I’d be more worried about HTX, formerly known as Huobi.
HTX seems to be Justin’s Sun’s personal piggy bank. Sun has his own blockchain, TRON, his own DeFi platform, JustLend, and his own exchange, HTX. It’s easy for him to move funds around in dodgy ways.
Let’s just hope he’s not doing it with your funds! The last thing we need is another crypto exchange to collapse.
Speaking of manipulated markets full of dodgy characters who will happily screw you over, let’s talk about oil. A brief digression before we get back to crypto content, but hopefully a worthwhile note.
OPEC cut production again.
Around these parts, people seem worried about rising gas prices and energy costs pushing US inflation higher and crippling the world’s economies. Where you live, you might have similar concerns.
May I offer a consolation?
US companies produce more oil now than ever. With oil prices still above historical benchmarks, they’re taking profits from OPEC countries.
At the same time, the US is shifting to non-gas sources of power and slowly refilling the strategic petroleum reserve (it added 5 million barrels since July). Earlier this year, the US approved a Conoco-Philips project to pump oil directly into that reserve—no market orders needed!
Will these actions do enough to counter OPEC and avert an energy crisis that pushes inflation to the moon and plunges the world into economic ruin? Can OPEC cut enough production to force real pain on others without tanking their own economies and shooting themselves in the foot? Can US oil producers fill the gap and shift global petro-politics in the US’s favor?
I don’t know. Sometimes, the “macro” is more complicated than the experts will tell you.
Fortunately, crypto is not. It’s easy!
Did you get this week’s update? If not, read it now.
While everything’s still going to plan, in that update I point out some small shifts that could make a big difference to our outlook (continuing the theme from recent updates).
If you missed that update, make sure you’ve upgraded to the premium plan so you don’t miss anything else. Upgrade now and you’ll also get:
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Scroll down for poll results and some content you may enjoy.
Big thanks to my trusted exchange partner, BYDFi.
The market’s quiet and prices are low. If you’re not following my plan, you need to dollar cost average into Bitcoin and get a good allocation to the altcoins I’ve recommended.
And, if you’re buying, it’s important to do so with a licensed and reputable exchange. That’s why I recommend using BYDFi.
In addition to the new super airdrop, when you complete KYC and deposit any amount using your credit card, you'll be airdropped $100 for trading on perpetual contracts.
Poll results
In last week’s rundown, I asked “when will the global recession start?”
A plurality of 40% said it already did. Another 40% said that the recession will come before July 2024.
We have some Negative Nancies, don’t we?
One reflection on the poll results:
Most of my readers live in the US, Canada, Australia, and Europe. A smaller portion live in India, with the rest spread among many countries.
Assuming this small group of voters reflects the sentiment of all readers, 80% of you expect the economy will get worse in the next eight months.
Yet, you’re still interested in crypto.
Why?
If you want to reply, scroll to the bottom of this post and look for the “Leave a Comment” box.
Small Accounting Change = Big Impact
Last month, the US’s Financial Accounting Standards Board told businesses to treat digital assets as they would treat other financial assets.
While that may not seem like a big deal to us, it’s a massive change for accountants and financial officers. Before, companies had to value their Bitcoin at its lowest price, which made their assets look smaller and their businesses look less profitable.
Now, they can count their Bitcoin at market value.
Listen to a recent episode of the Business Bitcoinization podcast for an explanation of what that means and why the change matters to you.
To skip the small talk, start at the 16-minute mark.
Bottom line: US regulators accepted a US court ruling that forces them to either approve Grayscale’s application to convert GBTC into an ETF or come up with new reasons to deny it.
My take: same as always—the SEC is being so literal and expansive in its interpretation of its role and the laws, that its decisions make no sense. Moreover, the SEC has now seemingly lost, like, half of the crypto cases that they didn’t settle, an abysmal record for any US agency (a +90% success rate is common). Maybe SEC Chairman Gensler realizes it’s time to ease up.
Why we care: US regulators don’t have nearly as much power as you think they do.
Speaking of a recession, you may think I’m too nonchalant about its potential. Especially after seeing the poll results above.
Hardly. Watch this video for my thoughts.
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Relax and enjoy the ride!
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