Weekly Rundown - October 29, 2023

Big week

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Last week, bitcoin’s price reached a new high for 2023.

Unlike earlier this year, I don’t hear anybody calling for $1 million bitcoin—or even $100,000 bitcoin. Wouldn’t it would be ironic if the mildest bear market in crypto history ends with a face-ripping melt up into a global recession?

We'll just have to see how it goes. Make sure you got my Market Update from October 26, 2023!

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The US central bank meets this week to decide whether to raise interest rates or keep them steady. I don't see any reason for them to raise rates. All the trends they care about seem to be heading in the direction they want to go.

Scroll down for poll results and some content you may enjoy.

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Poll results

In last week’s poll, I asked “what will bitcoin's price be at the end of 2023—higher, lower, or about the same as today's price?”

I asked the same question in September. Then, 63% of responders said higher. This time, only 40% said higher.

This makes sense because Bitcoin’s price is higher now than the first time I asked the question.

One of the “price will be lower” responders commented:

“Before Christmas is always the time to take any profit. Between November 22 and December 22, the price cannot be high. If all goes well, it will probably be around 30k.”

That may be true for some people. Generally speaking, you use December to capture losses, not gains. At least, in the US (maybe not where you live).

By December, you have a clear picture of your tax situation. If you’ve cashed out investments for a gain (profit) earlier in the year, you use December to sell your losers to reduce your tax bill (if it makes sense for your specific, personal tax circumstances).

Then, in January, you buy back into your positions or take profits on your winning investments. At that time, you don't worry too much about the tax consequences because you don't know how the year will go.

As a savvy investor, you already know this. Most people in the crypto market don't think about it.

In any event, so much of the crypto market has moved outside of the US that US tax strategies may matter less now than before.

Bottom line: bitcoin’s crushing two struggling national currencies.

My take: it’s also at all-time highs against the Argentine peso and some other currencies. It’s approaching a new all-time high against the Pakistani rupee. Everybody obsesses about ETFs and bitcoin’s strength against the US dollar but imagine the FOMO you’re feeling if you live in Nigeria, Turkey, Argentina or other countries where bitcoin’s price is zooming.

Why we care: more confirmation that the US is no longer in the driver’s seat with regard to crypto.

When bitcoin’s price pumped two weeks ago, I noted the $600 million boost in USDT, aka Tether. That’s now over $1 billion since mid-October.

Not a lot, but when you don't have many sellers, a little goes a long way.

Whether that pump comes from stablecoin shenanigans, natural enthusiasm, or some coordinated effort, the result is the same. Crypto Tips posted a video that tries to connect some dots in a compelling, though speculative, way.

The question is whether this pump marks the beginning of Act 3 or whether we’ll see prices drop back into that horizontal zone we’ve followed for so long. Exciting times!

Bottom line: SVB, a crypto-friendly bank that triggered a crisis when it failed in March, now has new services as a subsidiary of First Citizens Bank.

My take: I’d be interested to learn how many crypto businesses SVB serves now that they’re part of a larger entity. Didn’t Nic Carter say the US government was cutting the cryptocurrency industry off from the US banking sector?

Why we care: we don’t get psyched out by traditional and social media commentators who scream whenever something bad happens. Sometimes, things get bad, then get better, and we move on. Case in point.

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Relax and enjoy the ride!

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