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The Fed will cut rates this week. The only question is how much—25 or 50 basis points?

Analysts expect this will pump the crypto market. The thinking goes…

… I'm not sure what the thinking is.

A 50-point cut would remove $200 billion in direct stimulus from the US economy and give the private sector less incentive to fund more stimulus (government spending) with bond purchases.

In other words, when you bet on rate cuts, you’re betting that debtors will keep spending at their previous pace, households and businesses will borrow more, and banks will find enough creditworthy borrowers to expand their lending.

Yet, delinquency rates keep rising for various loan types and unemployment is heading in the wrong direction. Banks do not often lend to unemployed people or those who can’t pay the debts they already owe.

Fortunately, they’ll let people draw against home equity lines of credit and take out certain business loans, two activities that get more appealing at lower interest rates. But that type of debt is mainly held by people who have benefited disproportionately from higher rates, wages, and revenue (entities with strong profits, deep reserves and assets, or good cash flow). In other words, the people least likely to need debt.

I could go on, but this is not a macro newsletter. Let's not get so hyped up about US rate cuts that we forget about the crucial trends and behaviors that matter for crypto.

In my most recent market update, I shared some insights about altcoins, gave you another cycle comparison, and shared a frustrating, persistent pattern for a certain group of HODLers. Catch that update now.

Look for another market update this week, along with the monthly issue. I’ll have another altcoin report later this month and more goodies later this year. Scroll down for some content you may enjoy.

You can reply to this email to contact me directly. Or, use this button to leave a comment at the bottom of any post.

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Chart of the Week

Bitcoin mining difficulty hits new all-time high

Some say “Bitcoin is dead” or “Bitcoin’s about to collapse.” Bitcoin miners disagree.

We’ve never seen so much competition for mining rewards, even as Bitcoin’s price sits 20% below its all-time high from March.

Does this surge come from more efficient mining operations, better financing and inventory management, or greater commitment to the craft? Maybe it’s a combination of those factors.

If you’re betting against the miners’ belief that they should apply this much computing power to the network, what do you know that they don’t?

Tether Made More Money Than BlackRock Last Year 

Bottom line: Tether’s making a lot of money from interest payments on customer deposits.

My take: Tether is PayPal for entities trying to avoid the US financial system. Easy money if you can build the right infrastructure and network.

Normally, you’d celebrate such success from a crypto business, but nobody knows where their deposits and reserves come from, nor why they can’t submit to an audit. Also, the USDT on Tron seems to appear from out of nowhere, with seemingly no connection to any real-world activity.

With so much money in the hands of one dodgy entity, Tether has a target on its back. Its growing profitability makes that target bigger. One day, somebody’s going to take a shot—and Tether better have what they say they have, or we’re all screwed.

Why you should care: Tether is the biggest risk in crypto. You need to pay attention to what it’s doing. (Collapse of Justin Sun’s empire is the #2 risk.)