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Exposing Bitcoin Data Models and Cycle Theories: Good, Bad, and Ugly

Are you buying into these?

Author

Mark Helfman
April 08, 2025

Crypto is full of data models and theories about when the market will reach its peak and bottom.

Are they still valid? Do they still work? Did they ever work? Can you plan around them?

Which one is best? Which gets closest? How do you know which to follow or how to use each of them?

This report goes through all of the major models to answer those questions. Read below for the definitive look at the most popular data models and cycle theories. Or, listen to the AI bots talk about it on their podcast, which is linked below.

Table of Contents

  • Halving Cycle: Myth or Reality?

  • Four-Year Cycle: Close Enough for Government Work

  • Logarithmic Growth Curves: Correct But Irrelevant

  • Pi Cycle: Valid but Not in the Way You Think

  • Institutions Cycle: A Speculative Model

  • Expanding Cycles: Once Maligned, Now Valid (Kinda)

  • On-Chain Models—Do They Predict Bitcoin's Peak?

  • Power Law and Stock-to-Flow: Which is Best?

  • U2R Model: the Only Model That's Always Right

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