Bitcoin’s price goes up and down like crazy. How do you know whether an upswing marks the top of the market? When we get a downswing, how do you know whether it’s a dip or the start of a cycle-ending crash?

Nobody knows, but if you have the right data, you can get a pretty good idea.

Fortunately, smart people have gathered lots of data on Bitcoin. More specifically, how Bitcoin acts in different circumstances.

Thanks to the transparency of Bitcoin’s blockchain, we can see changes in HODLing behaviors, money entering and leaving exchanges, gains and losses among Bitcoin wallets, and lots of other information about long-term price movements.

We can use that data to get a good idea of what to expect in certain situations. With that data, I designed an easy plan to navigate long-term tops and bottoms with a fair amount of confidence.

The goal is to build wealth with crypto without a lot of effort, stress, or trying to time the market.

While the price action can get quite extreme—up 50% or more after seeing signs of a peak, down 50% or more after seeing signs of a bottom—this is an extreme market. You have to give some margin for error. Close enough is good enough.

More on that below.

Backtesting the Plan

With this plan, you outperform dollar cost averaging. On average, you get 30% more Bitcoin for your investment.

That may sound lackluster, but you won’t find many plans that do better without more risk, stress, expense, or volatility.

With this plan, you sold above $133 in early 2013, above $760 in late 2013, and above $16,000 in late 2017. Pretty good for missing the peak by more than 25% each time!

You would not have sold in 2021, but you would not have bought most of the time. For the entirety of that year, your average price would have been about $37,000, assuming you bought the same amount each day that Bitcoin’s price was in my buying zone.

Most finished down for the year. You finished up 13% with cash to spare—and did even better if you followed my plan before 2021.

Dollar-cost averaging would have given you an average price of $47,000. Following my plan, you got 30% more Bitcoin for the same amount of money.

Without deviations, your decisions looked like this:

When you include trades and deviations along the way since 2020, you would've done this:

What this plan can and can’t do

This plan limits your downside financial risks and simplifies your decisions. It uses dollar-cost averaging as its benchmark.

With this plan, you catch all the major bottoms without buying higher than necessary. Along the way, you will have opportunities to sell profitably, but the goal is to give you staying power and boost your returns. Selling is the contingency, not the goal.

Don’t trade based on this plan! If all goes well, you’ll never sell.

What about the movements between those tops and bottoms?

On the premium plan, you’ll have my market updates and commentary to help you navigate the ebbs and flows. I’ll send alerts to premium subscribers.

Breaking Down the Plan

Below, I have simplified the plan into “When to Buy” and “When to Sell.”

Subscribe to Crypto Is Easy Premium to read the rest.