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The state of macro: A nuthouse with no hope?

Bottom line: Fallacy Alarm shares facts and observations that will challenge your expectations and assumptions about the US central bank and its impact on “the macro.” Read the full post.

My take: this is not a macro newsletter, but you have to pay attention to what's going on in the world outside of crypto. I'm surely not the only one who notices the disconnect between what people expect to come from US Federal Reserve actions and the actual results of those actions.

(I'm still grateful that the Fed bailed out Coinbase and Circle with rate hikes. Two cash-heavy, once-unprofitable businesses that got hundreds of millions of dollars from the US government in exchange for parking their unused cash in its Treasury. Quite a lifeline and something they could never get under ZIRP!)

Markets are incredibly complex and dynamic. Uncertainty is the norm. Read March’s monthly issue, Uncertainty is Your Edge, for more of my thoughts on that.

Why you should care: sometimes, “conventional wisdom” and “common sense” are neither wise nor sensible. We have to take things as they come and make the best of them.

Prosecutors rest case in $116M Mango Markets fraud

Bottom line: US prosecutors laid out their case against Avi Eisenberg, the trader who exploited Mango Markets for $100 million.

My take: this is not a simple case of fraud or theft. Avi found a flaw in the structure of an open-source protocol and then used that flaw to make money. The code was public. He did this in plain view of everybody. Within weeks after the trade, the protocol’s insurance fund made users whole. Shouldn't we want people to attack our protocols, so we can identify vulnerabilities and iterate better solutions?

I delve into that idea more deeply in my December 2022 Medium post, Should We Legalize Market Manipulation for Crypto?

Why you should care: this case could set the limits of exploration and innovation—and not necessarily for our benefit.