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- Weekly Rundown - December 10, 2023
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Bitcoin’s back to the price it was five days ago and 5% higher than last week’s rundown.
People keep talking about ETFs and “no new retail yet,” but we know that’s only part of the story.
A lot of our recent momentum came from Chinese stimulus, FOMO from people in countries where bitcoin’s price has already reached all-time highs, a renewal of speculative enthusiasm from Asian markets and traditional investors, and possibly some good old-fashioned Tether pumps.
Other English-speaking newsletters ignore everything I just wrote. You won’t see it pop up in your social media feeds. We have the evidence.
Yes, people all over the world are buying crypto to front-run the ETF, but market dynamics still beat any narrative you’re buying into.
In my update from December 6, I looked at some dynamics that may seem odd or misplaced—market signals nobody’s talking about, perspective on Ethereum that never gets mentioned, and some other notes that will help you make better decisions about how you “play” this market.
Get that update now if you missed it.
Also, if you’re in the trade from February 2, 2023, check your inbox for a trade alert. It’s still actionable.
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Scroll down for a poll and some content you may enjoy.
Poll
In the July 23, 2023 rundown, I asked which of these three paths was most likely:
About half of the responders said B, which is fairly close to the path the market has taken so far (still a few months to go). Great job!
Let’s try this again. Look at the price chart below and take the poll!
Which path is most likely?Pick the closest choice below |
A rare sight in the order books
Something very interesting in the order books. Take a look:
Don’t make any decisions on this information! Order books change quite often. All the time.
I’ll talk about this and other important signs in this week’s update.
Bottom line: recognize the value of what you’re buying, not just its price.
My take: the incomparable Sylvain Saurel talks about only bitcoin in his post, but I apply the concept to altcoins, too. We all want to get rich with crypto. That’s hard to do at today’s prices (2022 was your best opportunity). You still have plenty of time and upside so you can definitely improve your life and your financial situation dramatically—if you’re willing to think bigger than how much crypto you can sell for more of your government’s money.
Why you should care: at some point, you will have to make a choice about cryptocurrency. Choose wisely.
With crypto, you’ll find a lot of facts that don’t make any sense.
For example, if you bought $1 worth of bitcoin each day in 2022, you’d have more bitcoin than if you’d bought $1 worth of bitcoin each day in 2023 (including the 20 days that haven’t come yet).
Say what?
2022 was the bear market that got everybody REKT! 2023 is the bull market that’s making everybody rich! How could you possibly get better results buying in 2022 instead of 2023?
🤷
Crazy market, this.
Do you want another fact that seems too far-fetched to believe?
Digital Asset News has you covered. It turns out FTX would be profitable today had it not filed for bankruptcy!
Watch Rob’s video to learn more.
What is the moral of the story?
Frauds can go on a lot further than you think for a lot longer than you expect. FTX, for example, if CZ hadn’t tanked the FTT token.
As in the legacy markets, lots of businesses and projects get bailed out by rising prices. That doesn’t mean they’re legit.
Self-custody whenever you can, use Revoke.cash to reduce the risk of smart contract hacks, and limit your exposure to any single altcoin or platform.
Bottom line: the CEO of one of a large asset manager shares her insights and perspective on crypto.
My take: a must-read for anybody wondering about a Wall Street insider’s view. She talks her book as they all do (so do I, so do you), but she conveys a sense of perspective, restraint, and nuance that you might not expect. BTW, when she says she’s providing “[insert service] that our clients want,” she means “[a way] to make money off of people trying to make money.”
Why you should care: this is the mindset of the people who will feed the “safe, regulated crypto” narrative. Know who you’re up against.
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Relax and enjoy the ride!
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