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- Weekly Rundown - January 21, 2024
Weekly Rundown - January 21, 2024
We gave it a few weeks and look what happened
Mark Helfman
January 21, 2024
In the weekly rundown from January 7, 2024, I presented this bearish Wyckoff distribution pattern:
When you compare the trading chart to the schematic diagram, ignore a slight deviation from any particular squiggle or line on the price chart. The time and price of the swings are close enough for our purposes. It’s just an illustration to visualize a concept (and a close fit at that).
Is that pattern still valid?
Yes.
In fact, if you adjust for the three-day ETF mania, it’s tracking quite well. I shifted the dotted and dashed lines to match the deviation. See for yourself:
The good news for the bulls?
Markets invalidate patterns all the time. Prices change in unpredictable ways. In a vacuum, a single chart means nothing.
(Unless you have a lot of followers and tweet one. Then everybody gets freaked out.)
The bad news for the bulls?
Everything I’ve talked about in updates for the past seven weeks. Over that time, the market’s gone mostly sideways. As of this post, it’s down since we started seeing the warning signs.
If you missed my most recent update, get it now. You’ll know whether to buy or sell and get some insights about altcoins.
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Look for at least one more update and the monthly issue this week. Scroll down for poll results and some content you may enjoy.
Before we get to that, a quick note: I’m looking to finalize my next list of sponsors!
Put your brand in front of over 22,000 active crypto investors by reaching out through the button below here!
Poll Results
In last week’s rundown, I asked how many non-crypto people have talked to you about crypto in 2024.
More than half of respondents said zero.
Hardly anybody spoke to more than three people about crypto.
We know engagement metrics have gone up for the past few months. While that's good to see, until you get more than a handful of people saying anything to you about crypto, don't worry about altseason, cycle peaks, or selling.
In Act 3, every upswing will feel like some huge awakening. Social media will make it feel like everybody's flocking to crypto, institutions are buying, and adoption is right around the corner.
At some point, those feelings will reflect reality. Not yet.
I'll keep you posted.
Bottom line: we don’t just trade our government’s money for crypto. We trade our time and happiness, too. Consider the value of those things when you make decisions.
My take: it’s never a bad time to take a moment for introspection and confirm that you know what you genuinely want to get out of crypto. Route 2 Fi raised important questions that you need to answer now, if you haven’t already. From October to today, you felt the power of a crypto upswing. At some point, you’ll feel the opposite. Either way, you can win. You’ll have an opportunity to get what you want out of the market. The question is, what do you want?
Why you should care: this market chews people up. Don’t let it do that to you.
Bottom line: of the over 24,000 cryptocurrencies listed on CoinGecko since 2014, 14,039 have died, mostly from 2020-2021.
My take: a lot of these tokens were memecoins, rug pulls, and experiments. Does anybody remember BOMB, the deflationary token that would revolutionize finance?
Some of these dead tokens remain in the Top 100. Like CoinGecko, their token holders don’t realize it yet. More than a year ago, I posted my Top 100 Altcoins report to share my thoughts about which ones, based on circumstances at that time. The list has already changed a lot!
Why you should care: you probably have some dead altcoins and altcoins that will die eventually. I do, too. It’s ok. It’s part of the journey!
Do you want to hear more about how the bitcoin ETFs will bring new buyers, compete with each other, connect with the legacy financial system, and change the way money flows through crypto?
Unchained Podcast has a nice video about this. Watch it here:
For show notes, visit the episode’s home page.
Relax and enjoy the ride! anmd lo
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