Weekly Rundown - June 2, 2024

Give it away, now?

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Did you think I was kidding in last week's rundown when I said it’s good that politicians see an opportunity to make money and win votes with crypto?

I wasn’t. We need allies and advocates.

At the same time, let’s not make assumptions about what they’ll do once they get your votes and money.

If other technologies are our guides, we can look forward to regulatory capture, new restrictions, and a suite of laws and regulations that make crypto more centralized, less innovative, and less able to function without the involvement of politicians, banks, and other legacy financial entities.

This love for politicians echoes the sentiment towards Wall Street, a topic I wrote about in Bitcoin or Bust: Wall Street’s Entry Into Cryptocurrency. That book looks at the potential consequences as the legacy financial system takes its piece of the crypto pie. Good in some ways, but the opposite of the values crypto claims to promote.

How can you have self-sovereign, robust, secure, private financial networks when the fate of those networks hinges on the US political system and the interests that control it? I thought the whole point of crypto was to take monetary power away from banks and politicians.

As far as what that means for this bull market, catch my market update from May 30, 2024.

In that update, I shared how shifts in US politics will change market dynamics and looked deeper into miner behaviors, a key dynamic that nobody else seems to talk about now. Plus the usual on-chain and technical analysis and observations.

I also posted the May monthly issue, Define “Winning” in Crypto. Read or listen to it now!

Look for new altcoin reports and other goodies in the coming months.

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Bottom line: a sudden wave of celebrity interest in crypto reminds people of the top of the 2021 bull cycle.

My take: Worth noting, but not a sign of the top. We had a bunch of this nonsense in early 2021, and the market went higher later that year. Trump shilled his first NFTs in the bear market. Remember DeFi summer? When some people see a chance to make money with crypto, they take it. Don’t read any more into it than that.

Why you should care: Look beyond the headlines when looking for tops and bottoms.

Bottom line: US regulators asked Congress to let them crack down on US entities that send or receive stablecoins from entities that don’t follow US laws.

My take: They’re talking about USDT. Anyway, it’s moot until Congress creates a framework for stablecoins. It’s also very hard to enforce and will cut the US off from whatever financial markets and networks grow around stablecoins. More tilting at windmills.

Why you should care: The US has lost the battle and doesn’t realize it yet.

I'm sure you've heard about a US crypto bill the president vetoed. That bill would have overturned new accounting standards that make it harder for banks to make money with crypto.

While those standards seem nonsensical and counterproductive, I find it odd that some see the veto as some socialist, anti-crypto plot rather than a weird, arbitrary decision that doesn’t seem to benefit anybody (like all other crypto decisions). 

I recognize the new standards limit the type and variety of operational and financial support that crypto-related businesses can get from legacy financial entities in the US. That makes it harder to build anything related to crypto and forces awesome people and great projects to shut down, give up, or move away.

But there’s a reason the banking lobby pushed to overturn the rule. Once it goes away, they can make a lot of money!

When will somebody bring a bill that reverses efforts to criminalize privacy, restrain innovation, and punish creativity? Can’t somebody find a way for banks and politicians to profit from that?

Relax and enjoy the ride!

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