🌟 Editor’s note

Premium subscribers, scroll down for the QA video I promised.

🗓️ What you missed last week, what’s coming this week

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 🧐 What if Bitcoin Leads Liquidity (and not lags?)

A recent email from a subscriber made me remember an issue with public information:

People use the same word to mean different things.

For example, “long-term HODLers” can mean:

• Anybody who has held since the end of last year

• Anybody who has held for more than 1 year

• OGs and diamond hands who have held through multiple cycles.

Three different definitions of the same term, depending on what chart you're looking at or who you're listening to. I’ll talk about that further in my monthly post.

Ben Cowan highlights these semantic problems often, as he did in a recent video about M2/liquidity, which is a big deal right now.

There are many ways to measure liquidity and money supply, but the global M2 seems to have a forward-looking correlation to major movements with BTC.

Or does it? Watch Ben’s video and decide for yourself.

😧 Coinbase Might Be Manipulating Bitcoin’s Price — Here’s the Shocking Truth

With billions in cash on its balance sheet and a dominant share of the US crypto market, Coinbase is poised to do big things.

In fact, it just did. It bought Deribit, a big derivatives platform.

The Daily Dollar delves into the implications in a recent free article.

The article argues that Coinbase’s move widens access to synthetic Bitcoins, which let large interests manipulate Bitcoin’s price and sentiment through derivatives.

No doubt, a lot of activity comes from leveraged positions of large entities.

In my market updates, I simplify this phenomenon with metrics like estimated leverage ratio and other inferences. These metrics lack nuance but tell us what we need to know without a lot of complicated analysis.

Likely, you do not plan to execute complicated trades and manage leveraged financial positions. As such, a more general perspective is enough.

That said, I would encourage you to look more deeply into the specific actions and behaviors that insiders used to play the market. This will give you more perspective for your analysis and insights.

Start with this article.

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Relax and enjoy the ride!

— Mark