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- Weekly Rundown - November 12, 2023
This is not a trading newsletter. If you're reading this, you have a bigger vision in mind.
Along the way to realizing that bigger vision, sometimes the market presents simple, obvious, easy-to-execute trades with an exceptional risk/reward ratio and potential upside of 100% or more.
When I find one, I'll share it with you. Like the one from earlier this year. If you're in that trade, make sure you got the trade alert from earlier this week. It is still actionable.
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This newsletter does commentary and analysis. If you’ve been following my plan or getting all of my updates, you should be set. You bought for most of 2022. In 2023, you did this:
Now, you win no matter what the market does. Up, your crypto goes up. Down, you have fresh cash to buy more if prices go low enough.
What’s the market going to do next?
I talked about this in my market update from November 8, 2023.
Lots of interesting changes in behavior, technical patterns, and metrics. Make sure you caught that update!
If you missed that update or any of the premium content, make sure you’ve upgraded to the premium plan so you don’t miss anything else. Upgrade now and you’ll also get:
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So far, the year has pretty much played out as expected. If history is our guide, we’ll get a really big upswing followed by a really big crash.
Sounds good but I’d be remiss if I didn’t point something out.
When you compare today’s situation with previous situations where we’ve had similar macroeconomic, on-chain, technical, and behavioral trends, a drop to $24,000 is perfectly reasonable. We could even go up to $57,000 first.
As a result, you should not be surprised if we get “$24k magic.” As I described in greater detail in the most recent update, there are two paths to that price:
The long path: market conditions fundamentally change. We’ll see the shift in my market updates.
The short path: global war, financial crisis, exchange/stablecoin implosion, etc. Like the China crisis in 2015 or the COVID crash in 2020—a big drop, mass hysteria, and within 1-2 months we’re back to today’s prices.
Scroll down for poll results and some content you may enjoy.
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Poll results
In last week’s rundown, I asked “when will bitcoin’s price hit a new all-time high?”
61% of responders said next year. Most everybody else said 2025.
What will you do if we hit $70k this year?
Bottom line: The US government’s top crypto regulator, the SEC, can’t find people qualified to work on crypto. It can’t pay enough to attract good talent and when it finds people willing to work for a government wage, those people refuse to sell their crypto (a requirement to take the job).
My take: first came a haphazard, somewhat effective crackdown on crypto earlier this year (that almost sparked a global banking panic). Then came defeats in almost every crypto lawsuit that didn’t settle before trial. Regulators still insist on an irresponsibly literal interpretation of securities rules when applied to crypto. Now, the top watchdog can’t even hire people to oversee the industry.
Why are you still concerned about US regulators? The US government cannot win with its current strategy. Until that changes, you do not have to worry about the US government. My fellow US citizens will deal with the consequences. For the 96% of humans who live outside of the US, our government’s bad decisions make it easier for money, talent, and innovation to flow to their countries (which might be your country).
Why we care: we don’t stress about 30,000 US bitcoins for sale, criminal investigations into Binance, accusations of Tether fraud, Chokepoint 2.0, or any other US government nonsense your favorite experts scare you with. It’s a risk, not a reason to change your actions.
Coinflip game
The crypto market is heating up. Make sure you have the risk/reward and game theory chops to understand the strategic considerations that I and others will talk about in the coming weeks and months.
One easy exercise: the coinflip game.
Elm has a coinflip simulator that gives you a 60% chance of coming up heads and a 40% chance of coming up tails. You start with $25 and aim to reach at least $250 within 10 minutes.
Easy money. If you know basic investing (i.e., gambling) concepts, you should win more than $250 every time you play.
See how many flips it takes to reach $250!
While we’re gambling…
Since you’re in the mood to wager your government’s money on speculative, experimental financial technology, read Jennifer Whalen’s Quora post.
It’s a free strategy you can test out with a small amount of money, the Dune Token Analyzer, the Debank Whales module, and a lot of time. Tap below for instructions.
wtf happened to you guys #bitcoin
— Luke Rudkowski (@Lukewearechange)
Oct 26, 2023
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Relax and enjoy the ride!
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