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Did the late-week price drop surprise you?

If you're on the premium plan, it shouldn't have.

While we’re talking about the market doing “what’s expected,” I feel compelled to point out a crazy fractal that’s playing out as we speak, just for laughs.

Check out this thread going back to February (only the most recent one appears here, but you can see the rest by clicking the image and scrolling up once the tweet opens):

Will it happen the way that the tweet thread suggests?

No, because I've shared it. The market gods will get mad at me and make sure something different happens.

It's all just squiggles on a chart anyway. We don't worry about that. We worry about what's going on now—what we can anticipate and plan for.

Get my latest market update for more on that.

After you read or watch that update, go back to the previous updates so you get the full picture. This week, I will revisit the US dollar chart we talked about weeks ago and check in on other important trends and behaviors we need to follow.

Oh, one more thing. The United States will elect a new president this week. Each election is the most important of your lifetime, even if you don’t live in the US.

Fun fact: the US election always happens at the same point in the four-year cycle. Amazing, right? Just as the models predict.

After this election, many crypto commentators will tell you it's good or bad for your cryptos. You know better than to fall into that mindset. If you follow my plan, you're prepared no matter who wins.

Over the long run, and even in the short run, the election matters for many reasons, but your crypto portfolio is not one of them.   

Look for more goodies in the coming months, including a review of the top 50 altcoins. Scroll down for some content you may enjoy.

You can reply to this email to contact me directly. Or, use this button to leave a comment at the bottom of any post.

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Chart of the Week

Crypto’s Gray Rhino Risk

Long-time subscribers know I never dismiss the Tether Truthers.

Why?

Because the only time Tether has been forced to tell the truth, they admitted holding only 77% of their customers’ money (which is still way more than your bank), despite insisting publicly that they had 100% of their customers’ money.

We know they print fake Tethers in exchange for IOUs (“Paolo, we need 40 million USDT. We’ll give you $10 million now, and the other $30 million as soon as we settle this deal).

They have never passed an audit (though, to be fair, neither has the US military).

I could go on.

Some think Tether’s insolvent, but that seems unlikely for reasons I’ve discussed at length in other settings. My concerns have to do with their business practices and oversight.

Let's add one more Tether risk, compliments of Byron Gilliam of Blockworks: the risk that the US government confiscates their reserves under anti-terrorism laws.

Read his article for the full scoop.

Florida CFO wants crypto in the state pension fund 

Bottom line: Florida’s chief financial officer asked the state’s investment committee to report on the feasibility, risk, and potential benefits of adding crypto to the state’s pension fund.

My take: in government speak, this is the same as asking that committee to add crypto to the pension funds.

I don't know enough about Florida politics to know whether the decision-makers already decided to add crypto and need to give the appearance of public deliberation, but the snowball keeps rolling down the hill (still near the top). First Wisconsin and Michigan, now Florida. This on top of Texas, Wyoming, and several other states welcoming crypto businesses.

Is it a groundswell? No, but it’s a start, and so far, the momentum suggests more states will buy in.

Why you should care: so you don’t worry so much about the US federal government that you forget about state and local governments. They matter, too.