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UPtober or OctoBEAR? Q4 explosion or Q4 implosion?

Let’s look at what happened from October to December in previous years:

No help there.

My market updates over the past weeks have provided some insights. Did you get my update for October 2, 2024?

In that update, I revisited some HODL and accumulation patterns, talked about how changes in the strength of the US dollar will affect the market in the coming months, and laid out a strategy and rationale for what to do now.

Look for more goodies in the coming months, including a review of the top 50 altcoins.

Scroll down for poll results and some content you may enjoy. You can reply to this email to contact me directly. Or, use this button to leave a comment at the bottom of any post.

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Chart of the Week

Poll results

In last week’s rundown, I asked you to look at this chart, then pick the most likely path.

The majority said “B.” As one put it, “the expectation of greater liquidity (rate cuts) will take 6-9 months to materialize into actual liquidity,” not immediately.

Almost nobody selected path D. Paths A and C tied for second at roughly 15% each.

Fortunately, we don't need to predict the future. We know what's happening now and plan accordingly. Paths A, B, and C all make sense. We can get D with geopolitical strife, Tether concerns, or some problem within Justin Sun’s empire.

That said, the market often does what most of my poll respondents think it will. Path B matches the result we’ve seen historically in similar circumstances. It will also complete the cup-and-handle pattern I pointed out in Crypto Investor Dilemma: Great Expectations or Great Results?

Inside the Degen Mind: Understanding Crypto Communities and Why They Are the Way They Are

Bottom line: In this Hacker Noon article, Lisa de Vil says the intense emotions and tribalism in the crypto community stem from a deep desire for financial freedom and escape from traditional, unfulfilling work environments. For many users, especially younger generations, crypto is not just an investment but a path toward autonomy and identity, with each token they hold representing not just a potential profit but also a piece of their identity and aspirations.

My take: Money is a social construct—possibly the purest manifestation of human desires. For many, that desire does not include working a steady job for 40 years and retiring with a pension (which is no sure thing anymore).

We're all speculating on experimental financial technology, whether that means flipping meme coins or HODLing Bitcoin. Maybe the terms “degen” and “HOLDer” are merely two sides of the same coin (no pun intended)?

Why you should care: We all want an alternative to the traditional financial system. Nobody knows what form that will take. Embrace all of it. You'll have more fun.

AI replaces Web3 as hot key word in Hong Kong’s FinTech Week 

Bottom line: AI took the hype narrative from crypto at a major tech event.

My take: Some see this as a bad sign for crypto, but it’s natural. Think about the last two years: the 2022 lending collapse, FTX debacle, exposure of so many frauds, stifling regulations, and six months of sideways/down price action. Contrast that with AI, which, after 70 years of development, finally created applications with mass appeal.

Crypto will eventually get there—and probably in less than 70 years. Adoption takes more time than speculation, but it produces bigger, more durable gains. I talked about this in last month’s post: Crypto Crossroad: Profit or Adoption? 

Why you should care: These types of headlines don’t need to make you feel bad.