Have you seen this 100-year trendline on the S&P 500?

A few commentators have pointed this out. They say it means the S&P 500 will crash soon and drag the world into financial turmoil.

This may not have made it to your feed, but in case it does, let's address that briefly now.

The SPX is 1% below the trendline. Very close. You can bet the SPX will hit it at some point.

When? How? The line keeps going up. That leap up gets larger over time. A few months of sideways action will stretch the timing even further into the future.

If we follow the path the SPX took leading into the dot-com peak, it will tap that trendline three times, culminating in a high of $6,000 in March or June 2025.

Mark, you’re saying the stock market will peak in March or June next year, then go sideways until 2038?

Huh? No, I just pointed out how people tend to get ahead of themselves when looking at previous events.

If history repeats, it will result in a different outcome than people expect. There’s no way to time this. We haven’t even hit the trendline!

Even if we do, we could tap it three times over the next ten months before seeing a reversal. That’s not hypothetical—it’s already happened.

If we're going to get hypothetical about the SPX, let's look at the chart that compares SPX's performance against BTC. It’s started to form the handle portion of a bullish cup-and-handle trading pattern.

All that’s left is for Bitcoin’s price to follow the dotted line to finish the handle.

This massively bullish pattern can play out whether Bitcoin’s price goes up or down. It all depends on what the SPX does.

The problem with planning for that outcome?

There’s no handle yet. This pattern hasn’t completed. It may never complete. Without completion, you can’t act on it.

There's no reason to get bearish when you see a bullish pattern playing out before your eyes or because you’re scared of an event that might not happen and might not mean what you think it means.

There’s bad and then there’s “bad”

​​In my July 17, 2024 update, I noted some similarities with 2019’s Xi pump/dump and offered some perspective using the 2-week Stochastic RSI from our closest similar market conditions of 2013, 2016, 2019, and 2021.

Combined, those coincidental similarities suggest we either already hit our forever bottom or have up to 20% further to fall.

A 20% drop brings us to $46,000.

Does a $46,000 Bitcoin seem so bad? That wouldn’t even break the trendline that started in November 2022.

Anything above $51,000-ish preserves our market structure, for reasons I shared in the August 21, 2024 update.

If you move to the 1-month timeframe, you can’t find any good comparisons. But you can look at Bitcoin’s price action when the same indicator hits the same level in the same way as before.

• In 2013, this marked the absolute bottom.

• In 2018, this marked the start of a 70% drop over the next nine months.

• In 2019, Bitcoin’s price went down another 14% before rising more than 300% over the next year (we always throw out the COVID crash).

• In 2021, this marked a reversal that sent Bitcoin’s price up 100% within four months.

See for yourself:

Of course, August hasn’t ended! It’ll be five more days before we should even look at this chart. In addition, the “macro” has to cooperate (more on that below).

If you’re going to worry about something, worry about Iran, Japan, Taiwan, Venezuela, Justin Sun, Tether, inflation, recessions, and all sorts of other risks you can’t control, predict, avoid, or find in any analysis of the crypto market.

For those risks, hedge with funds you haven’t set aside for crypto. Now is no time to sell your stake in the financial networks of the future.

What to do instead

To paraphrase a famous general, don’t worry about what crypto will do. Worry about what YOU will do.

With today's lull, it's a great time to think about market conditions and your portfolio allocation in light of your financial circumstances. I'm always happy to consult, though I can’t tell you what to do with your money.

You can view it as a tuneup or, as one client put it, a thinking partner. Go to Tealfeed and pick your option.

Despite what the latest guru tells you, there are many ways to win with crypto. Find an approach that fits your personality and circumstances.

You can see what I'm doing with my portfolio strategy.

You also have my market updates and alerts. Most importantly, you have my plan.

The plan

My plan simplifies your decisions into a single chart. Three lines tell you when to buy. Two metrics tell you when to sell.

With my plan, here's what you would've done after buying for most of 2022:

If you sold some Bitcoin in March and altcoins at the beginning of April, as I said in alerts then, you may have done even better.

I say “may” because natural volatility makes comparisons challenging. For example, Bitcoin’s price traded as high as $74k and as low as $62k while my “sell” alert was actionable.

On a trading chart, it looks like we got our timing “right.” In a general sense, we did, but you and I may each have gotten different results.

I like my plan because it’s an easy, efficient way to get Bitcoin without trading or timing the market, with results that beat dollar cost averaging.

The plan doesn’t apply to altcoins, but when Bitcoin’s price is in the buying zone, you can usually feel comfortable buying them, too.

Soft landing?

Some will tell you it's time to celebrate falling inflation in the US.

They say this will lead the US Central Bank to lower interest rates, which will help the world’s economies and boost your investments, regardless of where you live.

Are they sure that rate cuts still work the way they think?

Every 1% cut removes $225 billion in payments to bondholders and another $200 billion in interest on cash savings accounts and money market funds each year.

That’s $425 billion in annual financial stimulus, gone. More disappears with every cut. Will expanded credit and private investment make up for that loss?

Are we overthinking this? Sometimes, the US economy grows after rate hikes. Other times, it shrinks after rate cuts. Same for the stock market.

Could interest rates be just one of many factors that go into financial and economic outcomes? Are modern economies more complicated and dynamic than the experts say?

The Fed is a faith-based institution. Objective analysis and data only go so far.

Here's the dirty little secret:

It doesn't matter whether we have a soft landing or not. You can have a soft landing, then crash on the next takeoff.

The US economy always goes into recession within five years of reaching full employment (since 1971, within three years). Full employment hit in November 2021. We’re due.

Now, we’ve seen an upswing in unemployment over the last few months. Look at this unemployment chart. Recessions are shaded grey.

Half of those upswings in unemployment happened after a recession had already started. The other half happened just before.

Is nobody else concerned about the rise in evictions, late rent payments, auto delinquencies, credit card delinquencies, late payments from multifamily home loans, and other bad trends that I can’t fit into this post?

These are the kinds of behaviors we only see after recessions begin. Some have reached levels we last saw during the 2008 global financial crisis and the years immediately after.

So, should we expect the same outcome this time? A decade of growth and prosperity? 

If not, does that mean the US economy is already in a recession? Can you have a recession with a growing economy and booming stock market?

Macro is hard!

No sweat

And that’s before we start talking about the impact of public policy on economic outcomes.

For example, US immigration policy. Fewer immigrants mean fewer workers and less demand for goods, services, and housing in the US.

Not what you want if you're banking on robust US economic growth to boost your investment portfolio.

What about the unwinding of the yen carry trade that has stimulated financial markets for decades? Is that no longer a problem?

We haven’t even talked about tariffs, loan forgiveness, handouts, bailouts, subsidies, wars, trade agreements, central bank liquidity programs…it’s a mess! How can anybody keep up with this stuff, let alone predict what will happen in six months or a year?

Don't worry about what the market will do. Worry about what you will do and plan accordingly.

To the extent you can prepare for a recession, do it without selling your crypto. I do this with my “bonds, Bitcoin, cash” investment strategy. That way, I win no matter what happens.

100x altcoins, but . . .

There may be a time to sell your crypto, but not today. Today, opportunities still abound.

It’s never a bad time to buy Bitcoin, though some times are better than others. Outside of the brief altseasons circled in this chart, Bitcoin paces or outpaces the overall market.

That doesn't mean you should avoid altcoins. With the drop in prices since April, you’re getting some good deals. 

Yes, 75% of them will die. The other 25% will do so well that they’ll pay for the losers and then some. If you can find a handful of those winners, you can beat Bitcoin’s performance. 

Start with the ones in my altcoin reports.

They’re mostly small altcoins or small ones that grew into mid-sized ones. I just added another, and I'll have one more next month.

Because these altcoins are small, most have 100x potential. You can't get that with the large altcoins.

As with most altcoins, some of my altcoins have features that tamp down on the token price, for example:

• Tokenomic schemes that release more tokens onto the market than buyers can absorb. 

• Treasuries that release new tokens onto the market in seemingly arbitrary ways.

• Lockups for insiders and investors. Once lockups end, early investors will sell some portion of their tokens.

• Large chunks of supply in the hands of insiders who will sell as prices go up (or any other time they choose).

• Small or insular communities.

I incorporate these features into my analysis and tell you how much these factors will weigh down the prices. As a buyer, you need to know how much they’ll limit your potential gains.

I also talk about staking and other rewards so you can turn these negatives into positives and boost your overall portfolio return.

Plus, I give you a limit for how large you should let the project get before you stop buying its tokens, as well as my take on what can go wrong and what needs to go right.

That way, you have all the information you need to assess the project and set some benchmarks for success and failure.

Multiples, not moonshots

The best part about small altcoins? 

Those multiples compensate you for dealing with those headwinds. 

For example, Open Custody Protocol (OPEN), formerly Qredo, is far less likely to succeed than Solana or Ethereum. It’s the rebranded version of a troubled project with a supply overhang from insiders. SOL and ETH are market leaders with robust communities and lots of traction.

Yet, all three projects could realistically die.

If OPEN does well, you get a 100x at a minimum. Probably 1,000x before it reaches its potential.

SOL and ETH will never do that, even if they’re wildly successful (which is no guarantee).

As for your particular altcoins? 

You have to take them one by one, case by case. Each has a different emission schedule, staking rewards, burns, unlocks, and all sorts of nuances that we can’t generalize. 

And who knows? You might get an altseason! It’ll come eventually.

You may look for safety in the top 100. Don’t.

• Only six altcoins from 2013’s top 100 stayed in the top 100 through December 2017.

• Of the 26 altcoins that stayed in the top 100 from 2017 to 2021, 21 slid down the list and only 14 ever made it back to 2017 prices.

• Since I reviewed the top 100 altcoins in 2022, 49 have fallen off the list. More will surely follow. (Surprisingly, all my “5” rated altcoins remain in the top 100).

Get your safe, dependable growth with Bitcoin. Once you have that, look for small and new projects.

Great expectations

With 100x altcoin opportunities and YouTube screaming, “Last chance to buy before the Q4 explosion,” you may feel compelled to throw all your money into the market now.

What do you plan to get out of it? Are you doing it because you expect to retire early or turn $10,000 into $1 million?

Pause for a moment. You may be setting yourself up for a letdown.

Success and satisfaction come when results match or exceed expectations.

If the New York Mets make the wildcard round, it's a great season. The fans are happy, the team feels good, and everybody gets a raise!

If the New York Yankees make the wildcard round, somebody gets fired, the team pledges to “fix it,” and the fans curse management.

Same city, same sport, same result, different reaction—all because of expectations.

Is it so different with crypto?

You get hyped up about the 100x tip from your insider. You get pumped about trading your way to riches. When it doesn’t work out, you get disappointed with a 100% return from last August to today.

In any other walk of life, a 100% annual return makes you a superstar.

Would you rather be a superstar or fail to reach an unrealistic goal?

When you expect to get a 100x return by the end of next year, you’ll feel bad when your portfolio "only” doubles every four years.

When you expect your portfolio will "only” double every four years, you’ll feel better about the downturns and volatility. You'll have the energy and stamina to stay engaged through the rough patches and lulls. You’ll still crush almost every other investor on earth.

Your portfolio will look the same. Only your feelings will change.

You won't find realistic expectations on social media or the email solicitations you get from other paid services.

Nobody will pay $5,000 yearly or spend 50 hours of screen time for results that beat most people, but they will pay for five altcoins that will make you $5 million. Only one outcome is realistic, but you buy the fantasy.

Cryptocurrency is a marathon masquerading as a sprint. They sell you on the sprint, but the real gains come from the marathon.

Great results

Everybody else wants to be certain of what will happen next. They worry about what the market will do instead of what they will do.

Flip the script. Embrace uncertainty. Use it to your advantage.

My tools and insights will help you do that.

With my alerts, you sold some Bitcoin in March and altcoins at the beginning of April. You have bought the major drops since then. You may have also squeezed an extra 5-7% with a short trade in April.

Depending on your timing, you might still be down, simply from normal volatility. Or, you may be way ahead. 

For an asset that can move up or down 20% in a week (50% for altcoins), it's hard to compare your results to somebody else's or even an average. 

Do you need to get so precise? Bitcoin’s price might reach $100,000 before the end of this year. Within five years, it's virtually guaranteed.

Stop looking for “calls” and predictions. Use my analysis, reports, plan, and everything else you get with Crypto is Easy.

With those tools, you’ll do just fine. In a market with as much upside as crypto, “just fine” is still life-changing results.

Relax and enjoy the ride!