Crypto’s weird right now.

We’ve got people asking if the top is in while the overwhelming consensus seems to expect a massive rally.

Some have thought about borrowing against their Bitcoin, rather than selling. Others wonder whether macro still matters or the four-year cycle still means anything.

Read my answers to this and other questions below, or watch the video. Let’s dig in.

How do you calculate the numbers for the results of the easy plan?

You mean this plan:

For the worst results, I took the worst outcome you get with the worst decisions and timing. For the best results, I took the best outcome you get with the best decisions and timing.

The worst outcome you could get:

• Buy your full position at roughly $93,000 at the end of February, not the lower prices in my alert.

• Sell your full position according to the formula I provided on the rally to $112,000 for an average of roughly $91,000. Those are round numbers to simplify the math, resulting in a 2% loss.

The best outcome you could get:

• Buy your full position at roughly $5,400 in 2020.

• Sell your full position at the highest prices of my sell alerts and buy back in at the lowest prices of my buy alerts. This results in more than 50x gains, less taxes and fees.

When you average out the decisions without the deviations above, sticking solely to the lines on the chart, you get an average cost basis of roughly $34,000. Today's price is more than 200% higher.

I stick to round numbers because they're easier to remember and better for the narrative flow of the content I produce.

Those outcomes do not include opportunity costs. For example, if you sat on $100 or spent it on dinner instead of buying more Bitcoin at $30,000, you lost $400. On that standard, this plan—and every other plan ever created—cost you (and me) untold fortunes.

But it’s impossible to control for those things and nobody calculates gains and losses on this basis. We’re all big losers by that standard, even people who made millions with crypto.

We can only stick to things we can quantify. At the end of the day, the results will vary from one person to the next.

The numbers are simply for reference so you don't think “I'm going to get rich” or “what a horrible plan.” It is what it is.

Is the four-year cycle over?

That depends on what version you’re talking about.

In the classic version made popular by Bob Loukas, we won’t find out until the end of 2026. That version says the bottoms come every four years and the tops can come anytime in between.

If you’re talking about the idea that the market peaks in the fourth quarter of every fourth year, it’ll be another five months before we can say. I don’t see any reason Bitcoin’s price can’t reach $113,000 in October, November, or December.

I'd also keep an open mind about other cycle theories and data models. Read my report.

Should I borrow against my Bitcoin?

Borrow, not sell?

That is a matter of preference and circumstances.

I wholeheartedly encourage you to borrow against your holdings when the market is down, depressed, and everybody agrees it’s a bear market. This reduces your risk of default and give you a chance to buy more at great prices.

Today, this is no simple decision. Let's do a comparison.

For example, assume you have 1 BTC bought at $50k, now worth $100k. You borrow $50,000 and put it into a money market fund at 4% while waiting for Bitcoin’s price to fall. It drops to $50k In December 2026. You buy another BTC.

You end up with 2.04 BTC, no taxes, and $50k debt plus interest with a blended cost basis of $50k.

Now, let's look at the other option you have today: sell that 1 BTC for $100k, with a gain of $50k on which you pay taxes (0%-35% in the US, depending on your situation).

You put the proceeds into a money market fund at 4% while waiting for BTC price to price of fall. You earmark, say, $10k for taxes when the bill comes due next year (you’ll use your $4,000 interest payments to cover 40% of your tax bill, minus taxes on the interest). Bitcoin’s price drops to $50k In December 2026. You buy more. You end up with 1.9 BTC, no debt, no taxes, and a blended cost basis of $50k.

Who got the better deal?

Impossible to say. The borrower got .14 more than the seller, but owes $50,000 in debt. Essentially, that .14 BTC cost $50,000 and comes with a leveraged position they need to pay off or risk losing.

Meanwhile, the seller has less BTC but can can post that BTC as collateral for another loan to buy more BTC. The borrower has no equity to draw from and may not find anybody to refinance the existing loan.

Even that comparison depends on individual circumstances like taxes, cash flow, banking relationships, and all sorts of variables that make these decisions very personal. Another example of how two people can do the same thing at the same time and get different results.

What’s the chance the top is in?

50-50, simply because this market has a habit of catching crazy pumps out of nowhere. Good vibes and momentum can take it higher than you might expect.

On the other hand, I’m concerned about getting this type of question after we have seen:

• Massive greed/euphoria

• Key psychological top signals

• Technical signs that you only see near market tops

• Long-term holder distribution and profit-taking

• A spike in mergers and drop in fundraising

• Key divergences on several dimensions

These are all things you see late in a market cycle. Even the bulls agree, they just think we’re going to get banana zone / altseason / blow off top / rush of liquidity and FOMO.

If Bitcoin’s price hits $113k, it will reach a new all-time high. Is that really substantively different than the $109k or $112k peaks from earlier this year?

For an asset that goes up or down 10% in one out of every four weeks, on average, I would chalk that up to natural volatility. No reason to get worked up for a few thousand dollars.

I'm not worried about the probability of a top. I'm worried about missing the drop to $50k or not having enough cash to buy when the price goes below $70k.

Today, you're playing for maybe 50% upside, maybe less, assuming you get your timing perfect (you won’t).

And, if you miss the top, you might get stuck. What if the market keeps dipping? Then November comes and you say the market has to peak in December or later, this is just another drop, like we’ve seen so many times before.

Soon after, the market crashes before you can sell.

Everything looks fine until it doesn't.

Why do you say need to derisk because US?

The US faces economic headwinds and the stock market is frothy with high valuations. The new administration wants to grow government debt and shrink government spending, which they're doing.

You also have a broad move to unwind the key drivers of the US economy for the past five years. That doesn't mean the past growth was built on a solid foundation, it just means changing the dynamics.

Tariffs and deportations hurt a lot businesses, though you never know how much others can pick up the slack. Core inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s benchmarks while our high debt burden makes it hard for the Fed to cut rates.

Other austerity measures should drag on the US economy, though they’re going slower and not getting attention from news and social media anymore. In other words, it’s no longer sudden, forceful, concerted, and aggressive effort. Instead, it’s the so-called “death by a thousand cuts” investors sometimes talk about.

I don’t know if that’s an accurate description. Time will tell whether this transition puts us in a better position. I hope it does.

I don't think the transition will be as easy as people expect. As a resident of the US, I need to consider my job security and cash flow.

Markets always adjust. Economies adjust. Even in recessions, more than 90% of people who want jobs can get them. The US has a lot of people working in service industries and side gigs. All these things make the US economy flexible, dynamic, and resilient.

I want to have ample capital to take advantage of opportunities that come when froth dies down.

If you live in another country, you have a different situation.

Will the stock market crash?

I don't know. That's a totally different beast.

The US stock market benefits from circular capital flows, subsidies for workers and businesses who put money into it, and sophisticated financial engineering to keep companies profitable. It's a magnet for a foreign capital and the US government will always step in if things get bad.

While individual stocks trade at bizarre valuations, the businesses generate revenue and distribute the benefits to shareholders with dividends and buybacks. At the end of the day, you have entities with real products and services that people want to buy.

Crypto has none of that. We have tokens that distribute benefits to holders, but no project that can sustain itself without speculative interest.

At some point, we’ll have cryptos that have real traction and a reason for lots of people to buy them for something other than selling in the future at higher prices. I can think of a few candidates. We're just not there yet.

Does your analysis change now that the macro has changed?

The macro hasn’t changed.

Unemployment in the US is still low, tariffs are still 10% or more, inflation’s still above the Fed’s target, and the stock market is even on the year.

Some talk about liquidity, like M2, a crude measure of the money supply.

It’s gone up, but some of that is a function of how the metric is designed. It’s priced in dollars. When the dollar goes down, even if liquidity doesn’t change, the metric goes up. M2 can go up even when liquidity goes down, as long as the dollar drops more than liquidity.

Watch the 13th minute of the video for a visualization I made with my hands.

“Liquidity” can mean a lot of things. Liquidity may have gone up or down, but you can’t say that solely with the M2 metric. It’s more complicated than that.

Japan, Europe, and China provide liquidity, too. They each have their own problems. Japan's probably the most difficult. China keeps trying to get out of its rut, but doesn’t seem to have found the solution yet. Europe’s doing ok, but for how long?

Take the macro under advisement. Everything matters. I'm more focused on what's going on with crypto.

Enjoy the rest of your week!