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- Weekly Rundown - February 2, 2025
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What a week!
I finished the last of my top 50 altcoin reviews. If you missed those, swing by the list.
Get it while you can! I’ll take down the list soon.
(For premium subscribers, I added emojis next to the tokens I would buy if I didn’t have a rule against buying the Top 50 altcoins during bull markets. Those tokens are LINK, UNI, AAVE, and TAO.)
Also, make sure you got my Buy/Sell/HODL alert for January 29, 2025.
I have a note about that alert in the January recap, along with the usual charts and such.
All that in addition to a normal, casual market update.
In that market update, I talked about projections that seem natural but probably won’t happen, plus key behaviors and metrics related to accumulators, hodlers, and stablecoins. I also have share analysis related to altseason.
This week, look for the release of my Danger Zone chart as a stand-alone webpage.
Scroll down for some content you may enjoy.
You can reply to this email to contact me directly. Or, use this button to leave a comment at the bottom of any post.
Before continuing today's update, I'd like to touch base on the note above:
👉This week, I will publish the Danger Zone chart as its own page, free for premium subscribers at no extra cost.
With that chart, you’ll know exactly how close we are to the conditions that led to major, long-term peaks in previous cycles. If you want access, upgrade to the premium subscription.
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Robinhood’s CEO, Vlad Tenev, published a paywalled op-ed in the Washington Post arguing businesses should tokenize their equity before going public—potentially instead of going public.
US laws do not allow this and US investors can’t access other markets that allow this. I’m certain Wall Street wants to change this, though it will take time. The question is how.
If done the way crypto advocates want, it will revolutionize finance and enable every business to raise money from anybody, anywhere, any time—and allow every person to own a stake in any business on earth.
It would also make stock markets obsolete. So you can see Wall Street’s dilemma.
Will Wall Street use its power to capture this innovation as a “value-add” disguised as “regulatory clarity” where US laws force tokenizers to brand their tokens with a Wall Street entity (for a small fee) and buy/sell these tokens on “preferred” blockchains?
Probably.
That means you and I will have to fork over a portion of our wealth to a Manhattan financier in exchange for access to these new investments. We can still get zapped, blacklisted, and funds frozen, forked, or limited without recourse.
In other words, we’ll get the status quo delivered through a Web3 wallet instead of an investor portal.
That’s hardly revolutionary and certainly not what crypto advocates envisioned from the most pro-crypto administration in history.
Degens, you don’t need to worry.
There’s a 50-50 chance those Wall Street entities will launch their own tokens as a corporate asset they can pay their executives and vendors with. You will have the chance to buy and trade their tokens, just as you would buy BNB or CRO.
They may even do buybacks and reward programs like those exchanges do.
Question/Answers
Lots of Qs this week. My thoughts, quickly:
Is it more important to consider the portfolio percentage or absolute value?
I always think of absolute value. A dollar is a dollar, whether that’s 10% or 80% of what you hold.
If you need $100,000 a year to live a decent life, it doesn’t matter if you have $1 million or zero dollars in the bank. What are you going to do to generate $100,000 a year?
For the person with zero in the bank, find a way to generate cash flow.
For the person with $1 million in the bank, you’re already 40% of the way to your goal simply rolling over US T-bills with TreasuryDirect. How do you fund the other $60,000? Or, do you buy 10 Bitcoins, hope the value of your position rises faster than $100,000 per year forever, and sell $100,000 worth of your position each year? Some other strategy?
I may speak in terms of percentages because that’s what people ask for and an easy way to communicate, but that is not how I think about money. You may think about money differently, too.
Unfortunately, this is not a personal finance newsletter. We talk about the crypto market! My specific amounts and percentages do not need to match yours. Frankly, they probably shouldn't.
What altcoins should I buy? Do you have any memecoin recommendations?
I do not offer personal recommendations. I still like the ones on my altcoin reports.
I’m happy to consult on your portfolio and specific tokens—connect with me on Tealfeed.
When should I buy altcoins again?
As a trade or just to see how much you can make, buy whenever you feel the urge.
As an investment, wait for major drops. I’ll tell you when I’m buying.
Altcoins are all speculative, none are worth their prices today, and most will go to zero—but we don’t know which ones yet. Wait for big drops, even if that means your portfolio may take a while to go up.
Some tips:
Stake when you can.
Altseason is a rare and fleeting thing. When it comes, you need to sell.
Altseason is no guarantee. I think of it like gravy and don’t factor that into my thinking.
Bitcoin beats a “diversified” altcoin portfolio over every random timeframe. While some altcoins outpace Bitcoin for long stretches of time, the overall altcoin market only beats Bitcoin’s performance during altseason (which is no guarantee).
Don’t set your expectations based on previous altseasons. We have thousands more tokens now than just last year, and last year we had thousands more tokens than in 2021. With so many more tokens, a smaller portion of those inflows go to each token, on average—including the ones you hold.
Bottom line: The Czech Republic will consider adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet.
My take: If I’m reading its website correctly, the Czech National Bank holds $150 billion in total assets. I doubt they would allocate more than a tiny portion to Bitcoin, but let's assume they went crazy and put 10% into the market (they won’t). That’s $15 billion, barely a blip for a $2 trillion asset. MicroStrategy holds twice that amount.
Why you should care: You don’t get carried away with these types of proclamations from small countries.
Relax and enjoy the ride!
Do you want to consult with me or chat? Schedule time on Tealfeed!
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