Weekly Rundown - July 27, 2025

Crypto cycles are dead?

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Bottom line: Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan says cycles don’t matter anymore.

My take: I guess we’ve come to the part of the cycle where feel the need to find reasons crypto prices aren’t higher than they think they should be. Hougan says it’s because the four-year cycle’s dead, we’re in a “sustained steady boom,” we won’t get a supercycle, and the pullbacks won’t be so bad.

I get it. Institutional flows have changed market dynamics as VCs and retail investors have less money and more choices than in previous cycles. Markets are more correlated to “the macro” than crypto-specific narratives and traditional capital rotations.

Nothing’s as neat and tidy as you think and theories come and go. I’m old enough to remember expanding cycles and the flippening. Hougan’s theory’s as good as any.

Why you should care: You can take the market as it comes and set your own standards for when to buy and sell, rather than get wrapped up in predictions.

 😏 Why You'll Miss Bitcoin’s Cycle Peak (And Why It Won’t Matter)

We’re about to start month 8 of the Banana Zone and just charted the highest closing price on Bitcoin’s weekly trading chart.

You’re getting visions of a “Q4 explosion,” altseason, and the forthcoming cycle peak.

You might feel tempted to hold for altseason or a price target or a signal on an indicator. You don’t have to. You can do very well without timing the market.

Before you let your expectations get the better of you, watch this video.

As you saw in my report on Bitcoin data models and cycle theories, you can follow the models perfectly and still sell 50% lower or buy 50% higher than you need to.

Sometimes, close enough is good enough.

Let’s connect! 

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Relax and enjoy the ride!

— Mark

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