When Bitcoin went from $32k to $50k, I heard so many influencers remind people to take profits. Not now, though. Now, those same people tell you to buy as much as you can.

Strange. Sell low, buy high?

I know from conversations and consultations that some of you have very large portfolios.

You might not think it’s large. Certainly, $1 million doesn’t buy what it used to, but by any objective measure of wealth, that's a lot of money.

You may be thinking about selling to protect some of it. “Taking profits,” as the traders say.

Go through my checklist before you do.

The two most risky things you can do financially:

1. Own no crypto.

2. Sell your crypto.

Sometimes, though, it makes sense to take that risk—especially if you're concerned about your cash position or ability to make more of your government’s money.

And, if things are getting too stressful and you're skeptical about gurus selling you banana zones, read my exit plan.

Does that mean I'm selling?

Nope.

Billy the Neighbor thinks he’s a king for hitting a 20% gain on some memecoin. We play for a bigger prize.

Catch up on what I'm doing in the November 19, 2024 update.

In that update, I also looked at some metrics and behaviors you won’t find on Twitter and YouTube, analyzed key market signals, and reviewed ADA, TRX, SHIB, AVAX, and TON.

Look for five more altcoin reviews in the next market update.

Set aside some time to read or listen to the monthly update, Crypto’s Hot, But Are You Missing the Bigger Picture? 

Scroll down for poll results and some other content you may enjoy.

You can reply to this email to contact me directly. Or, use this button to leave a comment at the bottom of any post.

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Chart of the Week

Poll results

In last week's poll, I asked “When will Bitcoin's price reach its high for this market cycle?”

51% of responders said the market will peak between January and April 2025. A handful said the top is already in. Quite the contrarians!

A large minority believe Bitcoin’s price will rise through summer 2025, fall 2025, or into 2026 and after, with the following split:

• May-August 2025: 15%

• September-December 2025: 20%

• 2026 or after: 10%

I've run polls for years. Usually, the consensus result matches the outcome we get. I suppose you collectively have a very good sense of the market. Something to keep in mind as we move through the remainder of this bull market.

(Let’s not get complacent, though. A year ago, I asked when the global recession would start, and 75% of responders said we would already be knee-deep in it by now!)

BSR—Best or Worst Idea?

I've already gotten emails from people asking me how high the market will go once the US creates its Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, aka BSR.

BSR is one of the most god-awful ideas I've ever heard.

It will also take a while to gather the political support necessary for passage. There’s no way Congress will voluntarily use the coercive power of the US government to transfer the wealth of working-class taxpayers to crypto bros without objection, immediately, in amounts large enough to pump your bags. 

I will let the incomparable Byron Gilliam give you more reasons to ignore the hype about BSR in his recent Blockworks post, The bitcoin strategic reserve: Crypto’s best or worst idea?

Others will put money into the market because they believe BSR will make them rich. We will know better.

Everything You Need To Know About The New Bitcoin ETF Options

At the risk of seeming to promote Blockworks content unfairly, take note of a development that will probably not get much exposure because it's financial “inside baseball.”

Don’t sleep on options trading and its potential to create a “gamma squeeze” that sends Bitcoin soaring.

This is the same phenomenon that caused GameStop to skyrocket in 2021. People thought GME was some amazing stock with an incredible renaissance when its price went up. In reality, internet degens orchestrated a financial maneuver that squeezed traders who had mismanaged their positions.

Something like that could happen to Bitcoin. Learn more about that and other aspects of the options trade in this episode of On the Margin.