With markets rallying and all eyes on tariffs, you may feel uncertain, apprehensive, or excited about crypto.

Embrace those feelings. That is what gives you the edge in this market.

Everybody else looks for certainty. They chase predictions, projections, and “calls.”

We know better.

Experts blame Trump’s tariffs for sagging markets, but the weakness we’ve seen this year comes from a confluence of headwinds that no US president can control. You’ve seen the evidence in my monthly posts for a long time. 

The gurus obsess about tariffs so much that they don’t realize the US economy’s been walking down the Beveridge curve for two years.

US consumers can’t keep up with Buy Now, Pay Later arrangements. Credit card default rates hit a new high. Nobody knows whether private lenders have enough collateral to cover defaults—but we know they don’t have access to Fed facilities if the situation deteriorates further.

We’ve looked at other headwinds for months in these monthly posts. No need to revisit here.

Certainly, a further decline in the US economy will drag crypto down. Wall Street’s Bitcoin ETFs draw most of their flows from US investors and a larger portion of crypto assets sit in the hands of US entities than in years.

Our current rally is the natural response to big drops like the one we had earlier this year. Have you thought about what comes next?  

We can make do with whatever is left

Aunt Sally and Uncle Morton already have their 1-3% allocation. The Pickleball Crew put some money in after Trump got elected. Institutions have bought since…forever, if you believe the gurus. Half of my subscribers maxed out their bankrolls at the end of last year.

With so many people already allocated to the market, where do the gurus expect to find these massive sources of new interest? Speculative capital has all but disappeared.

I listened to a Milk Road podcast with a guy saying that hundreds of funds, collectively worth $400 billion, said they’ll allocate up to 5% to crypto this year. 

That’s an extra $20 billion. Not enough to change the trajectory of a $2 trillion market.

(And some of that money has already come in.)

Yes, we still have Samantha Down the Street putting in $10 each week, but that won’t change the market's direction even if you put a million of her on a Coinbase weekly auto-deposit.

The gurus say a massive surge of liquidity will send the market into the stratosphere “in Q3.” Trump won’t let crypto fail. Models prove the peak is not in. The real economy is just fine and the stock market will go up once all this tariff nonsense is over. US interest rates will drop, the Fed will print money, and Bitcoin's price will surge this fall, triggering a massive altseason.

Sounds great. I hope they’re right!

What if they’re wrong?

We don’t know

I talked about the “Trump put” in the March 12, 2025 update. Macro/liquidity discussions go beyond the scope of this newsletter, though I sometimes mention relevant data as it pertains to crypto.

As for the models, theories, and institutions, you have my report.

Everything else is out of our control. We can only make the best decisions we can with the information we have.

How do behaviors, trends, and indicators change as prices change? What do we need to know about this relief rally? What prices should we care about? What should we do about altcoins? How do we approach the drops and bounces?

If you’re on the premium plan, you know what to look for and what I’m doing about it.

You won’t get targets, predictions, theories, or “calls.” You’ll see the situation unfold, appreciate the circumstances, prepare for realistic outcomes, and act accordingly.

For example, did you know that when you average the first upswing of every crypto bear market and adjust for relative values, you get a run to $97,000 next month? A run to $115k in June would match the first rally of 2014.

You’ll get excited when that happens. Should you?

First, let’s appreciate the situation we’re in.

Party like it’s 2025

Imagine you’ve been at a party for hours. It’s getting late.

You notice the punch bowl is running low, some guests have already left, a few have passed out in the corner, and the hosts are bagging up the trash. 

You want the party to go on. You were told the party would last until the morning. Your friends tell you they’re going to refill the punch bowl. One already ran to the store to get more booze! You hear the fraternities and sororities should arrive any minute.

There's no reason to think your friends and the Greeks can't pull through.

How much do you value those potential, hypothetical few hours of glee vs. the certainty that you’ll have another chance to party another night?

The answer changes with your mood, temperament, financial situation, tax circumstances, lifestyle, goals, cash flow, and all the things that make this decision unique for you.

Our current upswing could legitimately send Bitcoin's price back to $100,000 by June. Are you prepared for that?

A drop below $48,000 would match historical benchmarks and fit some structural models, though it may not happen until another touch of $100k. Are you prepared for that?

Follow my plan so you can navigate the upswings and uncertainty along the way.

Plan now

If you follow my plan, you’re down 4% at worst, up 1,500% at best, and most likely up 200% with cash to spare—without trading or trying to time the market.

You beat most traders and, on average, did 30% better than everybody who dollar cost averaged. Where you stand depends on many factors:

• Vagaries of the market.

• When you started.

• How much you sold in March 2024 and January 2025.

• How much of those proceeds you put back into the market when Bitcoin’s price went back into my buying zone.

• Whether you still follow the plan.

Along the way, you got market updates to help you make the best decisions and navigate the ups and downs.

The plan doesn't apply to altcoins, but generally, when Bitcoin's price is in the buying zone, you can buy altcoins, too. I’ll tell you when I’m buying or selling mine.

Not done yet

So many people put so much focus on equities and liquidity cycles. With all that attention to abstractions, you may not notice a fundamental, real-world change in US economic policy:

Austerity.

You might have gotten the impression that the new administration slashed government spending already.

In reality, the new administration cut a bunch of small expenses. This creates the impression of huge changes but they haven’t even started to scratch the surface.

For example, many DOGE “cuts” are not real cuts. Others will take months to wind their way through the US economy. Many agencies recycled their DOGE savings into other programs, which doesn’t reduce federal spending.

Temporary injunctions have paused tens of billions in cuts. Bureaucratic mistakes forced the administration to reverse others—for example, the courts reinstated a $20 billion clean energy program canceled for fraud because the government couldn’t show any evidence of fraud.

On top of that, the government is paying out tens of billions for severance, paid time off, and retirement incentives for more than 200,000 Federal employees who left or got fired, plus costs related to bringing the remaining workers back into offices.

It’s also still bankrolling more than $7 trillion in subsidies, grants, contracts, Social Security and Medicare payments, interest payments, and other spending for businesses, taxpayers, bondholders, and retirees.

That will change. 

The next shoe to fall

Judges will lift some injunctions. The White House will find a way around others or possibly ignore them. Congress will legislate some of the cuts, taking judges out of the equation.

Federal workers will exhaust their support by September (sooner for many individuals).

The government plans to fire at least 50,000 more employees and cancel 35% of its contracts in the coming weeks, though the fired employees will likely get the same benefits mentioned above and many contracts will lapse on a rolling basis through September, rather than terminate immediately.

DOGE will get better at its job. A new budget should further trim spending.

The White House proposes another $150 billion for the US military, but even if it gets approved, we won’t know how much of that money will go into the US economy. The US military has never passed an audit. 

In other words, the big cuts haven’t happened yet. 

Federal rugpull #2?

You can debate the role of government but you can’t debate the stimulative effect of government spending. As the Treasury Secretary says, it’s like taking steroids.

For the past few years, those steroids have driven a lot of the US’s economic growth. 

Combined with foreign inflows from trade imbalances and monetary policy, that growth pushed the stock market higher. It gave Aunt Sally and Uncle Morton enough of a boost to buy the Wall Street ETFs and gave Strategy฿ the liquidity to raise money for Bitcoin purchases. 

Higher interest rates boosted cash flow for creditors and bondholders while rising asset prices buffeted household spirits and spending habits. The boon spilled over into buying and investment decisions.

Congress and the White House want to reverse that. As best I can tell, nobody is stopping them. 

In fact, the debate revolves around how much, not whether, to dismantle the key elements of the US’s growth since 2020.

A macabre analogy

The politicians say they’re removing a fiscal and economic cancer. There will be some pain—”transition costs,” as Trump says—but it will be temporary and limited.

I think the cancer analogy is an extreme way to say: “it’s hard and risky to sustain economic growth through government spending. You can get into a lot of trouble if you do too much of that for too long. We’re at that point, and we need to put a stop to it.”

That makes sense. I’m more concerned about the message that “everything will be ok, it’s a temporary hiccup.” 

Imagine if your doctor told you you have cancer but it’s ok, the surgery will be a snap, chemo will be easy, it’ll be a little painful along the way, and everything will be great when you’re done. You don’t need to change your life. Don’t bother with any preparations. You might have a little medical bill but nothing too bad, just go about your day and it’ll all work out.

Doesn’t that seem a little too blasé? Might that encourage a little more complacency than the situation demands? 

Yet, that seems to be the collective response of almost everybody I’ve talked to about this, and the general sentiment I see on the Internet, in blogs, and among the public consensus.

Head for the hills?

Does that mean we need to sell our crypto for cash and hunker down?

That’s a personal question that only you can answer. Premium subscribers know what I’m doing.

It’s unclear how any further weakness in the US economy will affect you personally. Over the long term, you’d be foolish to bet against America’s businesses, workers, and general resilience. Economic turmoil brings amazing opportunities. 

If you live outside the US, you may not feel it at all.

We also don’t know what will happen when governments wave their magic wands and try to fix the problems. In many countries, governments have a lot of people trying to improve your life. Sometimes, they succeed. 

How much are you willing to bet on that? Your crypto outcome depends on the result of that wager.

We live in unusual times

If anything I’ve said seems out of step with what you’re seeing and hearing, I understand. 

Priya in the Park has called for a “great depression” for so long that you tune her out.

The naysayers have bashed crypto for so long that they’ve lost all credibility.

The politicians have told you “their party” will save the economy while “the other party” will destroy it for so long that you’ve started to believe them.

They don’t realize a bee disease might wreck US farmers as bad or worse than any trade wars. (Bees pollinate crops.) 

They don’t think about the 200,000 federal workers who will exhaust their benefits this summer, the additional 50,000 set to lose their jobs this month, nor countless more contractors and grantees who can no longer pay their workers, vendors, or themselves.

They don’t appreciate key changes in behaviors, conditions, and metrics that frame our present circumstances.

By the same token, these things take a long time to play out. People and markets will adjust. Things might not get so bad. 

If you think you need to sit in cash, when will you buy again? At what price? How much? On what conditions?

If you think you need to max out your investments, when will you sell? What will you do if the market keeps going up after you take profits? What if it peaks a few dollars lower than your exit price?

We will never get certainty. Markets always shift and change. We aim for clarity. Hopefully, that’s good enough.

Lambo dreams or fiat nightmares

Most likely, you came into crypto last year. You bought in February, March, and April of 2024, HODLed the summer drop, and bought more in November, December, and January. Maybe you made some money trading crypto earlier this year or caught some airdrops and memecoins. 

Now, you feel bad. They said you’ll get rich with crypto—but you’re not rich. 

They’re right. You can do very well with crypto. With my plan, for example, you double your return on investment every 2-3 years.

Not the fortune the gurus promised, but better than you’ll get with any other asset class. 

To get those results, you have to endure long periods of boredom punctuated by moments of terror. You’ll sit through exhilarating pumps that make you want to buy higher than you need to. You’ll buy into horrific crashes that seem to go lower and lower and lower without end. 

You’ll see amazing green days that make you question every bearish post. You’ll suffer horrific red days that make you doubt every bullish post.

Maybe it’s time to question whether “bull” and “bear” mean anything for an asset that drops +60% in bull markets and rises +300% in bear markets?

Facts are not reality

Sometimes, you’ll see consensus about what’s the “right” decision. Later, facts prove otherwise.

For example, plenty of people sat on their hands in 2022. Many of them laughed at you. They said you were dumb for buying. The crypto market fell 65% that year!

They waited until 2023 when “the coast was clear.” 

They thought they were smart, but the average 2023 buyer lost to the average 2022 buyer. You did better buying Bitcoin in 2022 and holding cash in 2023—you got a lower price for your Bitcoin and a higher yield for your cash.

2021 was a raging bull market. Most people finished down on their investment.

That doesn't seem right. It certainly doesn't feel right. People don’t remember it that way. Once you factor in taxes, fees, financing costs (if you bought with borrowed money), carrying costs, and physical risks, the calculus gets murkier.  

The facts are what they are. You pay a high price for a cheery consensus.

Social media and click-bait articles add to the confusion and send your mind in all sorts of directions. 

Here, we keep it real. We look beyond the day-to-day to see what’s going on behind the scenes—the hidden trends and behaviors that only reveal themselves in thoughtful analysis.

Who will you listen to?

Cryptocurrency is a marathon masquerading as a sprint. They sell you on the sprint, but the real winners run the marathon. The hare looks like it’s having all the fun, but the tortoise wins the race.

Attention goes to the bull market champions. Glory goes to the bear market warriors. 

The gurus promised “easy mode” and an opportunity to retire your bloodline. Did they deliver?

How does your strategy compare? Does it depend on reacting to rallies and tariff talks? Is it ready for a potentially different landscape in the months ahead?

If you’ve been around for a while, you should have done pretty well. Maybe the year hasn’t gone the way you expected, but we have plenty to look forward to—as long as you stick around for it.

Relax and enjoy the ride!