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- Weekly Rundown - July 9, 2023
In last week’s poll, I asked “when will Bitcoin's price hit a new all-time high ($70,000 USD)?”
50% of responders said 2024. One responder said “never,” which seems odd for somebody who reads a cryptocurrency newsletter.
Cycle theories predict a new all-time high in 2025. Do I sense some skepticism in those theories?
No worries. All options are on the table. People can’t even agree on whether Bitcoin’s in a bull market, so why would you expect them to agree on a potential new all-time high?
Mark, duh, it’s a bull market, where have you been?
I’ve been here for a while. And yes, as long as Bitcoin’s price stays above $15,600, this is a bull market. Technically, we just started Act 2 of the bull market, as I outlined in my June 28, 2023 update.
The problem is, this market crashes 30-50% in bull markets! You could make a living betting on Bitcoin’s price crashing in all market conditions.
Until the cloud clears over TUSD, BUSD, Binance, KuCoin, Huobi, and other exchanges, $14k is still in play.
It's still a very natural level from a technical perspective, and that’s before you throw in a potential economic crisis or global recession.
Historical parallels: August 2015 (China crisis, Bitfinex flash crash), March 2020 (COVID crisis, mass liquidations).
Like so:
Today, that’d be something like a Binance takedown, BUSD or TUSD fraud, collapse of Huobi or another large exchange, something with USDT…take your pick!
It’s been that way for ages. Now’s no time for complacency.
Make sure you got my market update from July 6, 2023 so you are prepared. In that update, you’ll also get advice for benchmarking your altcoin investments.
Scroll down for some content you may enjoy.
Did you read my latest altcoin report? Do it now!
Bottom line: a small DAO told its community to withdraw liquidity and stop working on the project.
My take: if true, the SEC has lost its damn mind. I’ll reserve judgement until the SEC files charges, but this seems excessive even for Gary Gensler. It’s a tiny project that has never had a problem. I guess they need a test case before they go after bigger fish, similar to their approach with LBRY. “First they came for the exchanges, but I was not an exchange, so I said nothing…”
Why we care: one more reminder to think long and hard about putting time and money into projects started in the US.
The bottom’s falling out of “blue chip” NFTs. With the Azuki botch, Boneheads scandal, and the crash in floor prices for Bored Apes and other vanguard projects, some think the NFT space is having its final washout.
The Defiant speculates something else is going on: traders chasing the Blur airdrops wash-traded and traded at losses to rack up transaction volume on the platform. As a result, floor prices fell and OGs sitting on huge gains panic-sold their NFTs, dragging prices down further.
Watch the video for more on that explanation.
Interesting theory. What are your thoughts? Comment at the bottom of this post!
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For those of you who are more numbers minded, read Sam Andrew’s report on the state of Ethereum. It’s written like somebody would write a 10-Q, the quarterly financial report that US corporations have to file with regulators.
Bottom line: Consensys surveyed 15,000 people across four continents. People in non-Western countries have far more positive feelings about crypto than people in the US and UK.
My take: makes sense. Crypto solves problems that Western nations don’t have. It’s technology for the 80% of humans who can’t access to the legacy financial system.
Why we care: more evidence that the US is less relevant for crypto now than it’s been in a long time.
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Relax and enjoy the ride!
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