Weekly Rundown - November 19, 2023

Asian stimulus

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Now, back to the rundown.

In the past two weeks, something odd has happened.

Normal people (they’re called “friends,” you wouldn’t understand) started talking to me about crypto.

Holiday bonuses are right around the corner. People seem less concerned about being fired. Supposedly the recession’s canceled (famous last words). Many people anticipate automatic pay raises and cost-of-living adjustments in 2024. They think the spot bitcoin ETF will make crypto prices go up. They’re worried about the market going up before they can get money in.

With China’s stimulus now clearly hitting the crypto market and FOMO from countries where bitcoin’s price is already at or near all-time highs, we can start to see speculative enthusiasm return to the market.

Does that mean the market’s overheating?

No, not on any of the important metrics nor in comparison with historical trends.

For example, Realized Cap HODL Waves show healthy churn among recent buyers and growth among key longer-term HODL bands. Important measures of sentiment and profitability remain subdued.

Catch my most recent market update for more on those and other metrics, plus stablecoins, key price levels, and important commentary.

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As crazy as it sounds, our most recent run isn’t remarkable. Since the most recent low on September 11, 2023, bitcoin’s price is up about 50% in 69 days.

Proportionally, that’s a weaker move than the 55% rise from November 21, 2022 to January 29, 2023 (a bigger move over the same number of days) and the 60% jump from March 10 to April 14, 2023 (a bigger move over a shorter timeframe).

Doesn’t feel that way, does it? Strange market, this!

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Bottom line: crypto exchange Kraken might launch its own smart contract layer on top of Ethereum, as Coinbase and Binance did.

My take: one more reason to think Ethereum killers are one of the big narratives for this bull run.

For users or anybody who cares about technological progress, this competition is great. For speculators, it opens up opportunities to find “the next big thing.” For ETH holders, it’s a real headwind. There’s a reason ETH’s returns have lagged bitcoin’s for more than six years.

L2s fragment liquidity across a bunch of platforms and away from Ethereum. Once you add competing L1s like Solana, Avalanche, Cardano, etc, you have a lot of other projects draining capital away from the ETH token. That includes Coinbase, whose platform does not have its own token (yet).

Why you should care: because you appreciate the nuances that other analysts and investors don’t.

My message to anybody put off by analysts and commentators that “got it wrong” about the crypto market in 2023 (and more generally, the idea that content creators know better than the market):

Bottom line: Solana’s price recovery mirrors its evolution since the FTX debacle (positive).

My take: I’m not putting more money into the top 100 altcoins but Solana is a perfect example of how in crypto, businesses die but the protocols persist. That’s the whole point of tokens as an asset—you own a stake in a financial network, not a business. Ideally, those financial networks grow so large and important, your tokens serve as a source of wealth you can “bank” on for generations to come.

(Disclaimer: I have never bought SOL but I have some tokens from selling my content on Soltype in 2022.)

Why you care: in speculative markets, price is misleading. A lot goes on that is never captured on a price chart.

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Relax and enjoy the ride!

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